Miller Magazine Issue: 129 September 2020

16 NEWS MILLER / September 2020 Extreme weather is reshaping global grain trade routes The global wheat trade is being shaken up again after extreme weather hurt crops in the European Union while harvests are booming elsewhere. Fresh from leapfrogging Russia as the top exporter, the EU will drop to third pla- ce this season after drought and floods pummeled crops. There’s a different story playing out in other key shippers: Canada is set for record sales, Australia will export the most in four years and Russia will regain the No. 1 spot, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). “Where there’s so many producers, someone always gets shorted by Mother Nature,” said Dan Basse, presi- dent of Chicago-based consultant AgResource. “Undou- btedly, there will be others that would be available to plug the hole.” USDA lowered its global wheat production forecast last month as reductions for the European Union, Kazakhs- tan, and Turkey more than offset a larger crop in Russia. Global consumption is also lowered mainly on feed and residual use for the European Union. Global trade is up, driven by stronger imports for Pakistan. Exports are raised for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, more than off- setting lower exports for the European Union. North Africa Projected to Be Top Wheat Importing Region According to a new report released by USDA, North Africa is poised to become the world’s leading wheat importing region for the first time in 3 years. Growing demand and reduced production is expected to push im- ports for the region to a record. Egypt, the world’s leading buyer, is projected to import a robust 13.0 million tons in 2020/21, down slightly from 2019/20, which was a record partly due to government stockpiling during the COVID-19 pandemic. Algeria, the world’s fourth largest importer, is forecast to import 7.0 million tons with conti- nued growth in demand and flat production. Morocco is projected up significantly to a record 6.2 million tons as its crop has been ravaged by drought and the government is allowing duty-free wheat imports through the end of 2020. It is worth noting that Morocco’s imports at the end of 2019/20 were also large in anticipation of tighter new-crop supplies. Imports for Tunisia and Libya are ex-