Miller Magazine Issue: 129 September 2020

17 NEWS MILLER / September 2020 pected to be nearly unchanged. Historically, the Middle East and North Africa were the top importing regions, but this dominance waned signi- ficantly in the last decade as imports by Southeast Asia and Sub-Sahara Africa rose substantially. In the last few years, the major wheat importing regions have ebbed and flowed in terms of importance depending on market con- ditions. For instance, Southeast Asia briefly became the world’s leading import region in 2018/19, but has since lost that position as demand there has flattened with lower feed use roughly offsetting stronger milling demand. The Middle East was the world’s leading importer in 2019/20 as tightening supplies led to massive purchases for Turkey and Iran. Now, markets have shifted, and North Africa is once again the top importing region. Here’s a summary of how crops and shipments are sha- ping up in major shippers: AUSTRALIA With the harvest just a few months off, the market is looking to Australia to fill the gap left by the EU, Rabo- bank strategist Stefan Vogel said on a webinar. The go- vernment in June forecast output to surge 76% to 26.7 million tons as rains aided crops after years of drought and farmers switched from barley amid a trade spat with key buyer China. Production could even reach 30 million tons, said Ole Houe, chief executive officer of broker and adviser IKON Commodities. That will help Australian wheat regain a stronghold in Southeast Asia, AgResource’s Basse said. Australia was one of the top four global wheat exporters before the unrelenting drought started slashing produc- tion. RUSSIA Analysts are raising production estimates, with the crop expected to be Russia’s second-bi- ggest ever. The country already sells to more than 100 nations and dominates the key Egyp- tian market, where it has kept Romanian and French grain sidelined so far this season. The USDA sees exports climbing 10% this season, although the pace has so far tra- iled last year. That could be because the harvest started later than in 2019 and southern areas that were first to collect saw poor yields. As Russia sells more to EU exporters’ traditional markets like North Africa and and the Middle East, that could lea- ve less grain available to ship to Asia, benefiting Australi- an sales there, said Andree Defois, president of researcher Strategie Grains. NORTH AMERICA A recent crop tour pegged Canada’s harvest at an all-ti- me high and the USDA projects the country’s exports will beat the record set in the early 1990s, meaning supplies should compete with Australian grain in Southeast Asia. The strong production outlook is weighing on near-term prices, according to Strategie Grains. For U.S. wheat, a weak dollar could buoy sales and exports to China have recently climbed. Overall U.S. shipments, while little chan- ged from last year, are set to surpass the EU this season. EUROPEAN UNION The region’s top grower France is still shipping to ma- instay markets like Algeria, and cargoes to China - which emerged as a major customer last season - continue to flow. Still, French exports could slump by a half this sea- son after a poor crop, although better harvests in Poland and the Baltic states could ease some of the EU shortfall. However, the French crop showed sufficient quality to meet milling and export market requirements. Germany's 2020 crop of all wheat types will fall 5.1 per cent from last year to 21.88 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry estimates. A fall had been expected after farmers reduced the area sowed. Poland's wheat harvest could increase by between 4 per cent and 5 per cent on the year to about 11.7 million to 11.8 million tonnes.