Miller Magazine Issue: 129 September 2020

20 NEWS MILLER / September 2020 COVID-19 has led to a global economic slowdown that is affecting all four pillars of food security - availability, access, utilization, and stability - according to a new article from researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), published in the journal Science. Economic and food supply chain disruptions endanger global food security Agricultural and food markets are facing continu- ous disruptions due to labor shortages caused by lo- ckdowns, as well as large shifts in food demand arising from income losses and the closure of schools and res- taurants. The key findings highlight the impact of CO- VID-19 on food systems, the global economy, poverty, health, and trade. “The most important impact of the pandemic on food security is through income declines that put food access at risk”, said article co-author and IFPRI Director-Ge- neral Johan Swinnen. “This is especially a concern for the extreme poor, who spend on average about 70 per- cent of their total income on food.” The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 5% decline in the world economy in 2020, a deeper global recession than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Model-based simulations by IFPRI suggest that such a deep recession would push 150 million more people into extreme poverty; an increase of 24% from current levels. Most of the rise in poverty will be con- centrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. “Dis- ruptions in food systems both contribute to increases in poverty, by affecting a critical source of income for many of the world’s poor, and also exacerbate the im- pacts of poverty by reducing access to food, particular- ly nutritious foods,” said Swinnen. The researchers note that income declines will parti- cularly affect consumption of nutrition-rich foods, such as fruits, vegetables, and animal-source products. New evidence from Ethiopia confirms this impact and further indicates that it is expected to increase micronutrient deficiencies among its population, contributing to poor health and greater susceptibility to COVID-19. Governments all over the world have made attemp- ts to ensure the availability of staple foods and the- se supply chains have generally held up well, even in