Miller Magazine Issue: 129 September 2020

ArgentIna 79 MILLER / September 2020 80kg per capita is already high by international com- parison. Hence, with a stable domestic consumption of around 6mmt of wheat, additional Argentinian wheat production will need to be exported, either in bulk or as flour. Argentina has a comparative advantage in sup- plying flour to neighbouring countries but not beyond those, so it is more likely that exports of bulk wheat will increase. As the Argentinian area and yield of wheat increases, Argentina will become a more reliable, albe- it minor, exporter of wheat. Argentina will be able to invest in longer term trade relationships with key cus- tomers, such as Mercosur countries and perhaps some strategically important west African countries. In Argentina, there is about 40–60 mmt of storage capacity on-farm, with more than half this being silo bags and the remainder steel silos. There is a further 70 mmt of grain storage in upcountry elevators, ware- houses, ports, and feed and flour mills. About half of the wheat produced is transported to port shortly after harvest. The remainder goes to warehouse storage (in- cluding mills) or remains slightly longer in farm storage. Argentina’s wheat production is destined to consis- tently reach around 21 mmt towards 2025, with its area planted to wheat possibly increasing by a further 2 million hectares, depending on price incentives. Ar- gentina’s domestic requirements are likely to remain at between 6 mmt and 7 mmt, so around 14–15 mmt will regularly become available for export. USDA projects wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2020/21 at 20.0 million tons. Due to positive global prices, farmer’s interest in wheat production is strong and they are expected to utilize good technology and high levels of inputs this year. Wheat exports in MY 2020/21 are forecast at 13.4 million tons (including flour). Destinations are expected to remain consistent with historical trends, with Brazil accounting for roughly 6 million tons (without flour). South American markets include Chile, Peru and Ec-