Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

47 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 Global agricultural markets remain stable as food trade has remained more resilient than overall trade. Global production levels for the three most widely consumed staples (rice, wheat and maize) are at or near all-time highs and trade at prices that are close to their January 2020 levels. Over the past few weeks, the prices of certain cash crops from developing coun- tries have rebounded and are also now back to their January levels. FAO lowered its forecast for world cereal production in 2020 by 25 mil- lion tonnes (0.9 percent) in September compared to the previous forecast in July. Notwithstanding this downturn in prospects, the expected global cereal output still stands at 2,765 million tonnes, an all-time high and 58 million tonnes above the 2019 outturn. This recent production cutback results from a reduction in the world coarse grains forecast, now pegged at 1,496 million tonnes, down 23.5 million tonnes from the previous forecast in July. The bulk of the decline relates to a 26.3-million-tonne downward revision to the maize production forecast in the USA. The forecast for global barley production in 2020 has been trimmed by 1.2 million tonnes, driven by lower yield prospects in the European Union, and now stands at 154.2 million tonnes. Global wheat production has been reduced by 1.4 million tonnes since July, which puts this year’s output at 760.1 million tonnes, marginally below the good outturn of 2019. The re- cent decrease is mostly the result of cuts to the production forecasts in Ar- gentina, the European Union and the USA. Global rice production in 2020 is projected at an all-time high of 509 million tonnes (milled basis). FAO’s forecast for world trade in grain in 2020/21 is pegged at 441.4 million tonnes, 6.3 million tonnes above the 2019/20 level. The forecast for world wheat trade in 2020/21 (July/June) has been raised to 181.5 million tonnes, marginally above the 2019/20 record level. The more robust wheat import demand in 2020/21 will likely be met by larger shipments from Australia and Russia, offsetting an anticipated cut in exports by the European Union. The expected global grain output stands at 2,765 million tonnes, an all-time high and 58 million tonnes above the 2019 outturn, ac- cording to FAO. Global wheat production has been reduced by 1.4 million tonnes since July, which puts this year’s output at 760.1 million tonnes. FAO’s forecast for world trade in grain in 2020/21 is pegged at 441.4 million tonnes, 6.3 million tonnes above the 2019/20 level. NEW SEASON HARVEST RESULTS AND MARKET EXPECTATIONS