Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

49 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 The International Grains Councils (IGC) organized its Market Condition Committee on the first week of Sep- tember in order to discuss the harvest prospective and market outlook for the cereals, oilseeds and rice. The outlook for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is lowered by 3m t m/m (month- on-month), to 2,227m, with a cut for maize partly offset by increases for barley and oats. The projection for world grains stocks is down by 1m t m/m, as a reduced forecast for US maize inventories (-3m t) is nearly offset by small increases for other grains. With upward revisions for wheat, maize and barley, the projection for total grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 3m t m/m, to a record 398m, an increase of 1% y/y (year-on-year). With data showing heavier than anticipated shipments in re- cent weeks, the Council’s figure for world soybean trade in 2019/20 is raised by 1m t, to a record of 164m, some 8% higher y/y. Fractional adjustments for carry-in stocks and production – seen rebounding to a new peak – result in a reduced projection for total supplies and carryovers in 2020/21. However, at 50m t, stocks would still be slightly larger y/y. The outlook for world import demand is raised slightly, to a record of 165m t, a 1% y/y gain. WHEAT OUTLOOK While growing conditions have been less than ideal in some areas, world all-wheat (common wheat and du- rum) production is expected to reach a record level in 2020/21, at 763m t, albeit only modestly higher than the previous season. Larger harvests than last year are en- visaged in Australia, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, China (a record), India (a record) and Turkey, but poorer results are seen in the EU, the UK, the USA, Ukraine, Argentina, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. The growing season was particularly difficult across Eu- rope, with overly wet weather hindering autumn sowing, followed by adverse dryness in the spring and rain-dis- rupted harvesting in the summer. All-wheat production in the EU-27, at 121.8m t, is estimated to be the smallest in eight seasons and down by 12% y/y. Harvest results were particularly disappointing in France (four-year low), Romania (eight-year low), Hungary (eight-year low) and Bulgaria (eight-year low), but good outturns were achieved in Poland (a record), Spain and the Baltics. Else- where in Europe, production in the United Kingdom is expected to slump to a 40-year low, potentially below 10m t. While the growing season in Russia was not ideal, pro- duction of 81.5m t is expected to be 11% higher y/y and the second largest in history, behind the 2017/18 crop. Ukraine fared less well weather-wise, with a 9% drop in output, although output of an estimated 26.5m t is only modestly below average. Amid mostly dry weather, harvesting of spring wheat made good progress across Western Canada, with field-