Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

50 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 work ahead of the pace of recent years in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Although frosts were a concern in some ar- eas, damage was likely limited to late-planted and imma- ture crops. Although hot summer weather negatively af- fected average yields, forecast output of 34.1m t is up by 6% from the year before and the most in seven seasons. Farmers in the US devoted a historically low level of area to wheat for the 2020/21 harvest and, together with a dip in average yields, production is seen at a three-sea- son low of 50.0m t, down by 4% year-on-year. With the spring harvest almost finished, producers continued to report mostly good crop quality, but variable yields. Recent months have seen increasing unease about pro- duction potential in Argentina owing to dryness. While early-September showers brought some relief to very dry central cropping regions, additional rainfall was still re- quired. Dry soils were a particular concern in Cordoba province, which typically accounts for around one-fifth of national production. The Council forecasts production at 19.0m t, down by 4% from the year before. Owing to unusual late-August frosts in southern areas, the output forecast for Brazil has been trimmed from ear- lier expectations, but at 6.6m t is placed 28% higher than the year before and the most in four years. Boosted mainly by a potentially bumper harvest in New South Wales, production in Australia is forecast to rise by 87%, to a four-season peak of 28.4m t. With harvesting still a few weeks away, there remains some uncertainty about crop prospects in parts of Western Australia, usu- ally the country's top growing state and exporter, where follow-up rains are needed to avoid yield losses. MAIZE OUTLOOK At 1,160m t, the 2020/21 world maize (corn) crop is forecast to be the largest ever recorded, 4% higher com- pared to the season before and up by 6% versus the five- year average. Among the leading growers, larger har- vests are expected in the US, Brazil and Russia, but with declines forecast in Argentina, Ukraine, China and the EU. Production expectations have generally been scaled back in recent months, mostly because of unfavourable weather in parts of the northern hemisphere. Because of gains in both acreage and yields, forecast US production is placed 9% higher y/y at 376.5m t, po- tentially the second largest on record. Crop expectations were even more optimistic early on in the season, when official projections were for output to exceed 400m t. However, with survey-based area data falling short of initial predictions and, given more recent spells of un- favourable weather, forecasts have mostly declined in recent months. A sustained deterioration in crop condi- tion ratings was linked to abnormally dry late-summer weather across the western Corn Belt, as well as a se- vere August derecho storm in Iowa, normally the coun- try's largest state producer, where hurricane-strength winds flattened crops and damaged storage facilities. Harvesting is now underway, with operations reaching 8% complete as at 20 September, slightly slower compared to normal. Strong winds are also likely to have cut short production prospects in China. While there are contrasting assessments about the full extent of recent typhoon damage to crops across the key northeastern provinces, the heavy rains and wind are expected to cut yields and harvested area. Even after generally good grow- ing conditions up to this point, output is forecast to dip by 1% y/y, to 258.0m t. Following a spike in lo- cal maize prices and ex- tremely strong demand at recent auctions of state re- serves, there are renewed question marks about the true size of Chinese grain supplies, especially given a