Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

51 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 recent pickup in overseas buying interest, including from the US. However, the spike in export demand also part- ly stems from efforts to meet commitments under the Phase One trade deal and the ongoing rebuilding of the country’s decimated pig population following outbreaks of African swine fever. Crop estimates for Ukraine have also been downgrad- ed in recent months. Relatively strong profitability and buoyant export demand incentivised additional spring plantings, with area rising to a record high. Following a favourably cool, wet start to the season, conditions turned increasingly hot and dry across the summer, cap- ping yield potential. After excellent results in the previ- ous two years, average yields are predicted to drop back below average in 2020/21, with production forecast to decline by 2%, to 35.0m t. With plantings only just getting started in September, 2020/21 outlooks for the main southern hemisphere ex- porters are much more tentative. Planting of Brazil’s first (full-season) crop has started, but with progress a little slower than normal due to spells of dry and cold weather in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Spurred by very high prices and solid demand, both from domestic and over- seas users, total area is projected to rise by 6% y/y, to an all-time peak. Most of the acreage gains are predicted for the second (safrinha) crop, sown directly after soy- abeans are harvested, with maize projected to be espe- cially competitive against cotton. Assuming trend yields, output is tentatively seen rising by 10%, to 112.5m t. Mainly because of strong competition from soybeans, maize acreage in Argentina is forecast to drop by 4% y/y. However, because of recent extremely dry weath- er and shifting price relationships between crops, there is currently much uncertainty about final acreage mixes. Should unusually dry conditions continue across the tra- ditional soybean planting window, some producers may instead be tempted to plant additional late-season maize varieties, especially if recent price gains are maintained. The Council’s production forecast of 54.3m t (-7% y/y) is therefore quite nominal and may be subject to revision during the coming months. SOYBEAN HARVEST RESULTS AND MARKET EXPECTATIONS Following the prior season in which production fell sharply – mainly on a sizeably reduced US har- vest – projections for the 2020/21 season point to a much-improved world soybean outturn, seen rising by 10% y/y, to a record of 373m t, some 30m t high-