Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

52 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 er than the five-season average. The predicted y/y increase mostly stems from expectations for a significant rebound in US out- put, tied to area gains and improved yields. While bigger harvests are also anticipated in China and India, prospects for small northern hemisphere pro- ducers, namely Canada, Russia and Ukraine, are less bright owing to acreage reductions and some- what difficult weather at times. While the southern hemisphere planting campaign has only recently commenced, the Council tentatively expects bigger or record harvests in leading growers. US output in 2020/21 is forecast to expand by around one-fifth y/y, to 116.5m t, with the in- crease linked to larger plantings and improved productivity. Despite prospects for a solid rebound, the outlook has been downgraded from earlier to reflect the impact of dryness on yield potential in core areas of the western Corn Belt – as evidenced by a continued worsening of weekly crop ratings between early August and mid-September, nota- bly in Kansas, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota and many other states. Furthermore, as a means of assessing the impact of an August derecho storm on fields in Iowa, USDA surveyed growers, with its findings leaving soybean acreage expectations un- changed from before. In the week ending 20 Sep- tember, nationwide harvesting was in its early stag- es, estimated at 6% complete, in line with average. Concerning prospects in relatively small, north- ern hemisphere producers, soybean output in Can- ada in 2020/21 is seen little-changed y/y, at 6.1m t, as a contraction in acreage – a continuation of the trend of recent years – is likely more than off- set by better yields, with mid-September reports indicating good potential in parts of Ontario, the largest growing province. However, this contrast- ed with concerns about the impact of cold weather on some later-maturing crops in Manitoba, where threshing was behind average. In the Black Sea region, where cutting of soybean crops is underway, 2020/21 production in Ukraine is forecast at 3.6m t, slightly lower y/y but almost one- fifth below the 2018/19 all-time peak. In the current season, less than optimal (hot and dry) weather and un- certainties surrounding export demand and profitability led to a sizeable reduction in plantings, with average yields also likely to fall. In Russia, output is seen steady y/y, at 4.4m t, with area underpinned in recent seasons by growing domestic demand, coupled with increased export sales to China. With the end of India's summer (kharif) season approaching, 2020/21 soybean harvested area is expected to be larger y/y amid generally beneficial conditions and good monsoon rains in core growing areas. While heavy precipitation was a concern at times, yields are still expected to rise y/y as output rebounds by 16% y/y, to 13.0m t. With the expiration of the soybean-free period on 10 September, Brazil’s farmers were officially permitted to seed 2020/21 soybean acres in the state of Parana, with Mato Grosso and other states following shortly after. However, early progress was reportedly thin due to lim- ited soil moisture. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of high local prices, largely stemming from domestic curren- cy weakness, and prospects for growth in international demand, farmers are predicted to boost acreage by 3% y/y. With trend productivity assumed, output is projected at a record of 133.5m t, a 5% y/y gain. Ahead of the start of the growing season in Argen-