Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

53 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 tina in mid-October, prospects for soybean seeding in 2020/21 are highly tentative. Nevertheless, given a challenging economic backdrop, growers may elect to plant additional acres owing to relatively lower in- put costs, also encouraged by potentially firmer global demand for soyabean products. Based on a modest ex- pansion of plantings, output is predicted to increase by 8% y/y, to 53.0m t. RICE PRODUCTION PROSPECTS Global milled rice production in 2020/21 is project- ed to rebound from the prior year’s fractional decline, to a new peak of 504m t (497m) as generally firm international prices encourage planting amid broadly favourable conditions. Prospects for global rice supply are largely shaped by outcomes in the world’s two largest producers, India and China, who together account for more than half the world’s output. In China, full-season produc- tion is seen expanding marginally y/y to 147.6m t, despite damage from heavy rains in the Yangtze River Basin, a key growing area, during the sum- mer. While the flooding negatively impacted yields for the early-season rice crop, the government had encouraged farmers to plant more in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which more than offset productivity losses. Furthermore, conditions for the middle- to late-season crops, which account for the bulk of production, are expected to tick higher y/y amid generally positive conditions. India’s production is also expected to increase, to a new peak of 120m t (118.4m), as further gains in minimum support prices encouraged larger plantings. Weather conditions for the sum- mer-sown (kharif) crop, which accounts for more than 80% of total Indian output, has also been supported by ample monsoon rains, with season- al precipitation as at end-September around 8% above average. Among other leading exporters, firm prices are likely to have encouraged Thai farmers to plant more crops following a below-av- erage outturn in 2019/20, while conditions are expected to recover from the prior year’s drought. However, water supplies in the country’s main dams remain low and availabilities for irrigated crops, particularly during the off-season, will like- ly be constrained. Overall output is expected to be higher y/y, yet remain below recent peaks and 19.1m t (18.0m). Drought conditions and salinity may also contain Vietnam’s productivity, albeit as high prices throughout 2020 encourage planting, with 2020/21 output seen mildly higher y/y, while Pakistan could also cut a larger crop as planting progressed during favourable conditions. US har- vesting was well underway by end-September, with crop conditions seen at above average and planted area significantly higher than a year ago. Consequently, total output is set to rebound by more than 20% y/y to 7.1m t. Elsewhere, flooding and pests were likely to negatively affect output in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including in Nigeria where flash floods reportedly damaged or de- stroyed up to 2.0m t of paddy (rice) in Kebbi State, while locusts continued to affect crops in East Africa. Produc- tion in Australia was expected to partially recover from two years of extremely dry conditions, although output is set to remain below recent peaks as rice competes with alternative crops for water allocations. In S America, the regional outturn is shaped by prospects for Brazil, where rice production has declined over recent years as farmers switch a portion of area towards alternative crops such as soybeans. Although firm prices may encourage plant- ing, Brazil’s 2020/21 output is tentatively seen declining slightly to 7.5m t.