Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

59 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 regions, which were not affected by drought. According to the latest data (as of September 24), the average yield in Russia is 3.07 MT/ha that is up 3% from last year. We believe the final yield value may reach 2.8 MT/ha and exportable supplies will be at 38.2 MMT. The 2019/20 export season witnessed a decline in ex- ports to many destinations because of reduced produc- tion and, consequently, tight exportable supplies. MY 2019/20 witnessed a significant rise in demand from Turkey (+52% from MY 2018/19). The rise in wheat imports to Turkey was fueled by the following: - reduced own production in MY 2019/20, - the fulfillment of a program of exporting flour and other wheat products, - the coronavirus pandemic (surged purchases in April- May); According to the USDA estimate, 2020/21 wheat im- ports to Turkey will be down at 7 MMT, but we believe this figure is understated because Turkey has earned the title of the top flour exporter. To retain buyers, the coun- try will have to continue producing and exporting wheat flour. Moreover, devaluation of the national currency makes its export still more profitable (the Turkish lira has lost 8% over the last two months); In the near future, Russian wheat may become more competitive in the global market owing to devaluation of the rouble, whose exchange rate directly depends on crude oil market trends. UKRAINE: PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS The key grain growing regions in Ukraine (Odesa, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad) were most exposed to drought during grain ripening. UkrAgroConsult estimates production at 25.9 MMT. The State Statistics Service preliminarily puts the harvest size at 25.1 MMT, but we expect it to be revised upwardly. 2019/20 export results: Ukraine harvested a good wheat crop in MY 2019/20, and its 2019/20 exports hit an all-time high. The season’s leader is Egypt (purchases up 94% from MY 2018/19, export share up 5%), but the most active importer was Turkey, which boosted imports by +296% from MY 2018/19.