Miller Magazine Issue: 130 October 2020

63 COVER STORY MILLER / OCtOber 2020 Our expectations from the new export season: 1. China may step up imports thanks to an increase in its import quotas, a gradual recovery of the livestock sec- tor after the ASF, and unfavorable weather events at the final stage of Chinese corn maturation (several typhoons damaged crops in the northeast). 2. The EU, which also was hit by drought this summer (Romania and Bulgaria), may also increase corn imports from Ukraine. In the end of August, the European Com- mission cut its EU crop forecast and raised import expec- tations by almost 2 MMT. We expect another downward adjustment in the crop estimate. 3. High competition from Brazil is expected at the start of the season, as the country just switches from soybean exports to corn in August-September. Although Ukrainian corn on CIF basis is cheaper than its Brazil- ian counterpart, the traditional importers of the Brazilian product (Iran, for example) are ready to pay premium for the quality. Also Brazil currently dominates the EU market (with 74% share according to last information). 4. The market of Iran (which stepped up corn imports from Ukraine by 59% in MY 2019/20) is potentially promising as well, and Ukraine could increase shipments to this country after the peak in Brazilian exports. RUSSIA: PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS Corn is not a core crop for Russian growers. The main buyer is Iran, though the Federal Customs Service of Rus- sia has been providing no official statistics on the country since October 2019. UkrAgroConsult estimates Russian corn production at 14.2 MMT and exports at 3.2 MMT. The range of export destinations hardly will undergo any significant changes in MY 2020/21.