Miller Magazine Issue: 131 November 2020

TMOs, the Turkish government has zeroed taxes on im- ports of wheat, barley and corn until at least December 31, 2020. According to market participants, the port facilities in Turkey are almost full, and traders are in no hurry to sell the volumes purchased earlier, expec- ting further price increases. China, despite rising stocks at the start of the season, may boost wheat imports, primarily due to lower production, Cofeed said. Sudan is working to acquire 1MMT wheat with US support. Algeria prefers Baltic or Polish origins. Syria also dec- lares that the monthly demand for imported wheat is 200kMT. Egypt will not charge sellers of imported wheat sifting and fumigation fees if dead insects are found in their shipments, Reuters reported. Along with the relaxation of quality requirements by Algeria, this demonstrates the shortage of grain in the domestic market. According to Reuters, France will supply China with another 2MMT of wheat. The European Commission last week again did not publish data on exports, but most likely in the next report they will eliminate the lag in the actual figures of wheat sold. Since the beginning of the 20/21 marketing year, the supply of US wheat to China amounted to 1.2 MMT, in contrast to the same period last season, when US wheat was not exported to China. The EU also updated data on exports, the gap from last year is no longer 47%, but 30%. Taking into account the fact that the harvest is 25% lower, these figures no longer seem so frightening, but speak of the use of the export poten- tial. Poland and the Baltics are the most actively expor- ted. Ethiopia is also quite active in the market. Pakistan's official wheat stocks are rapidly depleting and the private sector is re-evaluating the commercial viability of imports at the current high global market price. Russia, after a five-year hiatus, is increasing the supply of wheat to Pakistan, follows from the monito- ring of the analytical center Rusagrotrans. Recall that at the end of June, Pakistan allowed the private sector to import duty-free 2.5 million tons of wheat to cover the deficit, which formed against the background of a decrease in gross harvest last year by more than 1 MMT. Reduced inventories and decreased production caused prices to rise in the domestic market. Neigh- boring India, where wheat surplus has formed, cannot meet demand due to political divisions. The rally, which began with the announcement of quarantine in the spring, was reinforced by drought and cutbacks in production, in the summer it received a short break under the pressure of the harvesting com- pany, but gained momentum again under the influence of the same factors. The market is overheated and is at many summer highs. Importers' appetites are "not rubber", even though the supply is limited. It's time to take a short break and relax. Perhaps the market will agree with me.