Miller Magazine Issue: 132 December 2020

86 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / december 2020 despite expected rainfall during the week. IGC predicts a decline in global corn stocks, althou- gh production is still higher than consumption. Produ- ction estimates have been downgraded on cutbacks for some Northern Hemisphere growers, but still at record levels, driven primarily by large yields in the US and Brazil. Demand from wheat importers remains, prices on lo- cal markets are trying to turn around. Australia's offer puts pressure on prices in certain regions. Australian APW is quoted at around $ 275 C&F Southeast Asia, almost at last week's level. Despite the fact that Aust- ralia's harvest is already estimated at 31-32MMT, de- mand from Asian buyers remains high. AHW is trading at $ 290-295 C&F, Australian Standard White Wheat ~ $ 270 C&F. APW is still cheaper than a similar class of Black Sea wheat, which costs $ 285-290, Singapore trader ZernoOnline reports. Egyptian GASC bought 2 vessels of Russian and 1 vessel of Ukrainian wheat at a tender, at a price that practically corresponds to the previous tender - from USD 261.85 FOB Black Sea. At the previous tender on November 26, 3 vessels of Russian grain were purcha- sed for delivery in the second half of January at USD 261-262.35 FOB Novorossiysk. Jordan announced a tender for December 9 for the purchase of 120kMT milling wheat of optional origin in lots of 60kMT for delivery from April 1 to April 15, April 16 to 30 and May 1 to 15. Turkey to hold a tender for the purchase of 400kMT of red durum wheat on December 4. India will be able to export up to 4MMT of whe- at to Southeast and West Asia by March, up from 0.18MMT last year if the government grants an export subsidy. There are rumors that India sold some cargoes to Bangladesh – mainly by railways, but sources said that one vessel could could be shipped as well. Market price is around 250-260 USD FOB for 11.5% pro. Russia is considering a proposal to increase the grain export limit from February 15 to the end of the cur- rent marketing year from 15 to 17.5 MMT. Profiled as- sociations of exporters are also trying to substantiate the groundlessness of establishing export duties. The area under wheat for the future harvest is 1.1 million hectares higher than last year, but the sowing condi- tions were extremely dry. IKAR expects production at 78MMT against roughly 84MMT this year, but such forecasts are, in the opinion of many market players, premature. The sowing of winter wheat in the Nort- hern Hemisphere is almost completed, despite the drought, the wheat is ready to go into winter dorman- cy in relatively good condition. China sold ~ 674.8 kMT of wheat from the state reserve, or 16.76% of the total supply. The average selling price was RMB 2,340 (US $ 355.34) per tonne. Sales volumes are lower than last month, indicating a decrease in demand for wheat as a substitute for corn in feed. The head of the Algerian state operator OAIC was allegedly fired last week due to a precedent with the import of improper grain. According to rumors, we can talk about the Baltic grain, since Russia and Ukraine did not ship grain to Algeria recently. German wheat stays the main grain for Algeria this season.