Miller Magazine Issue: 132 December 2020

88 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / december 2020 Rumors about the refusal of several boats of US soy- beans are still unconfirmed, but processors' margins are extremely low. China has not bought soybeans from the USA for almost 2 weeks. Rapeseed oil in China has also dropped in price, whi- ch will lead to a decrease in prices for sunflower oil. Ukrainian processors have already started to cut prices to compete with producers of other oils, which led to a decrease in the purchase price for sunflower. The Government Trading Corporation (GTC) of Iran has announced an international tender for the purchase of about 30 KMT of sunflower oil. Earlier, the Argenti- ne government announced the possibility of refunding the export tax on soybeans for small and medium-si- zed producers. Argentine farmers have reported that the amount of funds allocated by the government for this purpose has been dropped significantly and they are extremely disappointed. MACRO Joe Biden's practically held victory in the US presi- dential election makes economic analysts wonder what financial policy the new owner of the White House will adhere to in the situation that Donald Trump leaves behind. Over the four years of his presidency, the Uni- ted States has several times renewed its record values of its debt, the budget deficit has been constantly inc- reased - meanwhile, Biden was moving towards the presidency with an economic program involving new gigantic spending, and the consequences of the coro- navirus pandemic for the American economy are far from being over. One of the most widespread proje- ctions today says that in the nearest future all these imbalances that have been growing in recent years will lead to a serious weakening of the dollar and a new acceleration of global inflation, since many other countries have followed the US in pursuing quantitati- ve easing programs in the financial sector. But there is another point of view, the supporters of which remind that such forecasts were made during the 2008 crisis, but they came true exactly the opposite. Next year, the dollar may fall by 20%, analysts at the American Citigroup said a few days ago. As possible factors that will contribute to such a scena- rio, they named the emergence of effective vaccines against coronavirus that can stimulate world trade and economic growth, as well as the policy of low rates of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). The Fed, Citigroup has suggested, will be cautious when considering raising interest rates even as the global economic recovery accelerates. This could prompt investors to look elsewhere for their money, as rising inflationary expectations in the US make the dol- lar less attractive, and investors are targeting fast-