Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

What's next for the Russian wheat market? World wheat prices soared to a six-year high as top exporter Russia announced a wheat export tax and a grain export quota that will limit shipments to 17.5 million tons to curb food price inflation. Black Sea wheat prices jumped to around $300/ton. While the global markets are trying to absorb these prices, the news that Russia would impose a floating wheat export tax made the markets more uneasy. The Russian government is considering that permanent tax starting from June 1. Earlier, Russia announced a 25 euros export tax would start from Feb- ruary 15, but it will impose a wheat export tax of 50 euros a ton from March 1 to June 30. Russia also set a barley and corn export tax. Now the market speculates on the consequences of the implementa- tion of those restrictive export measures and tries to understand what is going to happen next. In an interview with Miller Magazine, Andrey Sizov, the Managing Director of SovEcon, sheds light on what's hap- pening in Russia and the world grain market. Sizov describes these measures taken by the Russian government as mistake. “Russian government did a lot to help the world prices to grow but beneficiaries from those prices would be not Russian farmers, but their direct competitors all over the world,” he says. Sizov predicts such moves will negatively affect the Russian farmer's desire to grow wheat. Predicting that the wheat area in Russia will decrease in the next season, “Russia will likely lose its number one spot in the world wheat export market in the medium term,” he states. Sizov thinks the new floating tax will likely be approved. He predicts that after such a decision, the Russian farmers will lose the incentive to store their wheat until the new season and will start to sell it in the current season. “That will drive the domestic market lower and will boost Russian with exports. So, we were expecting those floating tax news and that's why we upped our export forecast from 36.3 to 37.8 million tons”. In his interview with Miller, Andrey Sizov, one of the most reliable experts on the Black Sea grain market, shares his predictions for the Black Sea wheat market as well as the world grain market. I am sure you will enjoy reading this interview. editor Namık Kemal PARLAK company/millermagazine millermagazine millermagazine Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd. Gökevler Mah. 2312 Sok. No:16/37 Ginza Corner Plaza, Esenyurt / İstanbul - TURKEY T. +90 212 347 31 64 F. +90 212 212 02 04 www.millermagazine.com info@millermagazine.com On Behalf of Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd., Owner Zübeyde Kavraz Responsible Manager Namık Kemal Parlak Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak Editors Mustafa Yağmurlu Cemalettin Kanaş Sales and Marketing Ahmet Açıkgöz Burcu Çetin Art Director and Visual Design Alparslan Murat Aysu Corporate Communications Ahmet Hamdi Annaç Consultancy Board Ali İhsan Özkaşıkçı, Chairman of AUSD Mesut Çakmak, Chairman of GUSAD Erhan Özmen, GUSAD Honorary Chairman Bekir Bağış, Chairman of Çukurova Flour Industrialists Association Hasan Özmermer, Board Member of Özmermer Flour Derviş Toprak Mehmet Şerif Gültay Referee and Scientific Advisory Board Prof. Dr. Mustafa Bayram Prof. Gustavo Sosa Prof. Dr. Hazım Özkaya Asst. Prof. M. Kürşat Demir Asst. Prof. Halef Dizlek Asst. Prof. Harun Dıraman Asst. Prof. Mustafa Erbaş Publication Type Periodic (Monthly) Printing - Baskı İhlas Gazetecilik A.Ş. Merkez Mah. 29 Ekim Cad. No: 11 A 41 Yenibosna-Bahçelievler-İstanbul Tel: 0212 454 30 00 All copyrights belong to Parantez Publishing. © May not be used without permission. Responsibility of the ads belongs to the advertisers. ISSN 2718-031X Copyright Page