Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

MexIco 73 MILLER / february 2021 Corn Production, Consumption and Import in Mexico (1000 Tons) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Production 27671 26658 27800 Consumption 44100 43800 43850 Imports 16658 16526 16500 Source: USDA Wheat Production, Consumption and Import Corn Production, Consumption and Import in Mexico (1000 Tons) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Production 27671 26658 27800 Consumption 44100 43800 43850 Imports 16658 16526 16500 Source: USDA Wheat Production, Consumption and Import in Mexico (1000 Tons) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Production 3000 3270 2900 Consumption 7500 7400 7400 Imports 4861 5080 5000 Source: USDA Sorghum Production, Consumption and Imports in Mexico (1000 Tons) Corn Production, Consumption and Import in Mexico (1000 Tons) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Production 27671 26658 27800 Consumption 44100 43800 43850 Imports 16658 16526 16500 Source: USDA Wheat Production, Consumption and Import in Mexico (1000 Tons) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Production 3000 3270 2900 Consumption 7500 7400 7400 Imports 4861 5080 5000 Source: USDA Sorghum Production, Consumption and Imports in Mexico (1000 Tons) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Production 4700 4328 4600 Consumption 5100 5000 4600 Imports 546 567 100 Source: USDA 2020/21 season were revised downward to 2.9 mil- lion tons. “Regarding the fall/winter crop cycle, private sources state that wheat planted area was approximately nine percent lower than the initial planting intentions. Farmers have recently shifted to planting more bread wheat than their typical durum-type wheat because of modifications to the Mexican government’s Guarantee Prices program, which grants small and medium growers a guaranteed price per ton of bread wheat produced. A shift from planting durum wheat (called “cristalino” in Mexico) to planting more bread wheat will lead to lower yields for farmers, as bread wheat has relatively lower yields than the cristalino variety,” the report said. USDA forecasts 7.2 million tons wheat consumption for the 2020/21 season. According to the Mexico’s Na- tional Chamber of the Wheat Milling Industry (CANI- MOLT), wheat consumption decreased in 2020 because of the pandemic. As a result of pandemic restrictions, CANIMOLT reports the wheat industry has seen an aver- age 30 percent fall in sales at traditional bakeries. While the sale of shelf-stable products (bread, pasta, cookies) has increased by 15 percent, this increase does not make up for the loss of sales to restaurants, hotels, and insti- tutions. On the financial front, the industry reports that flour mills are having difficulty recovering losses from past-due clients and face “brutal” competition to win the few clients still able to pay. Mills have less purchasing power due to the depreciation of the peso, higher costs for financing, and an increase in costs from establishing sanitary and hygiene measures in their facilities. SORGHUM EXPORTS TO CHINA Mexico is the world’s fourth-largest producer of sor- ghum. USDA forecasts 4.6 million tons sorghum produc- tion in the 2020/21 season. Last year, Mexico and China signed phytosanitary protocols that will allow Mexico to export sorghum to China for human consumption. Mexico was previously able to export sorghum to China only for animal consumption. China began talks with Mexico to diversify its sorghum sources amid escalating China–U.S. trade tariffs in 2019. Mexican analysts believe Mexico will be able to capitalize on increasing Chinese demand be- cause of Mexico's strong transportation networks and port infrastructure and may ultimately be able to compete in volume with Argentina and Australia, China’s other main sorghum suppliers. The private industry believes that sor- ghum export volumes to China could reach 50,000 and 100,000 MT by MY 2021/22. Some analysts predict Mex- ican white corn farmers may take advantage of the new export protocol to shift acreage to sorghum. RICE Rice is another important staple in Mexico. Mexicans consume around 8.5 kg of rice per capita per year. Al- though it produces many varieties of rice in many ar- eas of the country, production is insufficient to meet the domestic demand. Mexico imports 60% of its rice con- sumption from other countries. It is the largest export market for U.S. rice, importing more than 20 percent of all U.S. rice exports. Mexico’s rice production is estimat- ed at 281,000 mt in the 2020/21 season. And the import estimate for the same season is 800,000 mt.