Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

76 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 Analysts expect China's corn stocks to drop 64.3MMT to their lowest level in five years. Corn prices in Dalian have been remained stable at a high level in recent days. The reason for this is the measures to restore the pig population. At the same time, the market casts doubt on the presence of such large reserves in China for a number of indi- rect signs. Among them are the disproportionately high volumes of forward contracts, and the decla- ration of intentions to expand the cultivated areas, and the admission of new varieties of GMOs, and the replacement of corn with wheat from the state reserve. The information appeared on the market that imports in 2021 could be up to 40MMT. The world's largest agricultural trader says China's re- cord-buying activity is not over yet. According to the CEO of Cargill Inc. Dave McLennan, in an in- terview with Bloomberg, the purchases of the Asian country will have to "go through at least another couple of quarters" befo- re the leading importer of soybeans and corn has sufficient stocks. Harvest prices, which have been risen to more than 50% since the August low, need further incre- ases to limit consumption, he said. Infor- gafica Farm Policy. But today, China has demonstrated that it considers itself to be the main market leader by canceling the purchase of 132,000 tonnes of US corn. Despite the fact that the market expec- ted a reduction in the estimate of the corn crop in Brazil to 103-105MMT, and in Ar- gentina - to 46MMT, the US department did not change its forecasts. Moreover, official Brazil raised its forecasts for corn production to above 110MMT. Turkey will hold another corn tender on February 11. The previous tender on January 12 was closed at an average of $ 265 per CIF, which is almost in line with today's FOB prices. South Korea, after a two-month break, returned to the market and resumed buying corn. The in- terruption in supplies, according to the USDA, will lead to a reduction in annual imports by 0.5 MMT. According to Platts, feed mills in South Korea have been reluctant to buy corn due to rising prices, and since the last purchase on December 3, CFR NE for Asian corn has been risen by $ 48 / tonne or 20%. Major corn ımporters