Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

81 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT US ON grke@mxmexhibitions.com or +971 50 887 4723 BOOK YOUR SPACE! KENYA - THE LION OF AFRICA INTERNATIONAL GRAINS & TECHNOLOGY TRADE EXHIBITION GRAINS AFRICA 2021 09 10 APRIL 2021 Sarit Expo Center - Nairobi - Kenya 11 FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONT CT US ON grke@mxmexhibitions.com or +971 50 88 4723 FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT US ON grke@mxmexhibitions.com or +971 50 887 4723 INTERNATIONAL GRAINS & TECHNOLOGY TRADE EXHIBITION GRAINS AFRICA 2021 09 10 APRIL 2021 Sarit Expo Center - Nairobi - Kenya 11 China drives corn trade With record corn imports forecast in January at 24.0 million tons for 2020/21, China’s demand for feedstuffs continues to rise as its swine herd recovers from African swine fever. High corn prices are supporting record feed use of wheat and rice. Although primarily consumed as food grains, feed use of these grains is rising with increa- sed availability of old-crop wheat and rice from auctions at prices competitive to domestic corn. U.S. exporters reported nearly 5.9 million tons of corn sales to China in January for delivery by the end of August 2021. The volume alone implies that China imports for calendar year 2021 will again exceed its tariff rate quota (TRQ), given that China will also buy corn from Ukraine and others. Last September, Chi- na’s National Development and Reform Commission announced that the corn TRQ for 2021 remains unc- hanged at 7.2 million tons. For 2020/21, U.S. total sales and shipments to China stand at a record 17.7 million tons at the end of Ja- nuary. Reflecting the large volume, China imports are raised 6.5 million tons from last month to 24.0 million. If realized, China would become the largest importer by a sizable margin. China’s total consumption is also forecast higher driven by feed and residual use with an assumption that impor- ted corn is primarily to satisfy robust feed demand in the swine sector. The forecast consumption for food, seed, industrial (FSI), however, is trimmed based on significant- ly smaller exports of corn-based products such as starch, corn gluten feed (CGF) and corn gluten meal (CGM), sweeteners, citric acid, and glutamic acid for the Octo- ber-December period. While China’s corn milling data is not publicly available, substantially smaller exports of various corn-based products and higher unit values are indicative of slow milling activities. Strong domestic prices could be squeezing margins for milling operations and weakening exports of corn-based products, while stimulating corn imports to an unprece- dented level. The sheer volume of China imports certain- ly fuels global trade dynamics. USDA