Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

82 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 In its supply and demand scenario for the major grains for the five years, IGC fore- casts that world grain production would reach successive record highs during the medium-term. With the strongest net production gains in Argentina, Ukraine and the EU, global wheat output in 2025/26 is placed at 822 million tons, up by 57m com- pared to 2020/21. Global maize outturn is forecast to reach 1,277 million tons in five years, 131m more than in the current season. IGC projects successive record grain production for next five years The International Grains Council (IGC), an intergovern- mental organization providing accurate, unbiased informa- tion for the grain markets, published its five-year baseline projections of supply and demand for wheat, maize, rice and soyabeans. Assuming growth in average yields mat- ches the recent trend, without taking account of any va- riability caused by particularly favourable or unfavourable weather in any individual season, global total grains pro- duction is projected at successive records during the five years to 2025/26. “This will be sufficient to keep pace with projected demand growth, but will allow little rebuilding of stocks, with the ratio of total grains stocks-to-use tighte- ning a little,” IGC said. Consumption patterns at the start of the outlook period were disrupted by the COVID pandemic, especially indust- rial usage, as demand for transportation fuels was signifi- cantly impacted by widespread lockdowns. “Although the- re is still uncertainty about the progress of the pandemic, the start of vaccination programs is raising optimism that the virus will come under control, and thus demand patter- ns should return to a more normal trajectory in the medium term, particularly if economic conditions soon recover from the COVID-related slump. Nevertheless, projected rates of grains consumption growth are somewhat slower than historically. As per capita use is already at high levels and no longer growing in many regions, gains for food will be driven by population change, which is rising fastest in parts of Asia and Africa,” the report states. According to report while the rate of stock depletion for maize is projected to slow compared with recent seasons,