Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

84 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 that are easily storable at home, including wheat-based foods such as pasta and flour, helped to limit the impact of the loss of out-of-home demand. The most stringent virus-related controls were only in place for about one qu- arter of the 2019/20 marketing year in many countries, and consumer activity started to pick up again from la- te-June. The overall impact on human food use of wheat in 2019/20 was therefore limited, with estimated global growth for the whole year of 1.3% only about 0.2 per- centage points less than the average in the prior five years. Feed demand also faced headwinds from the pandemic, but, for wheat, a drop in usage in 2019/20 to a seven year low was mainly because of competition from large supplies of competitively-priced alternatives. While overall demand for wheat appears to have rema- ined robust, many uncertainties remain about the medi- um-term outlook for consumption, not least the duration and severity of the pandemic. Many countries emerged from full-lockdowns in mid-2020, but some saw a resur- gence of the virus later in the year, with some imposing fresh curbs on social interactions. Furthermore, even where official measures were not in place, some consumers conti- nued to voluntary social distance until risks from the spread of the virus were considered to have subsided, including staying away from restaurants and bars. Although there were signs in late 2020 that a vaccine would soon become widely available, there are a number of broader and potentially longer-term consequences of the pandemic, not least the speed of recovery from the pandemic-induced slump in economic conditions. While demand for wheat-based foods tends to be relatively re- silient to changes in price and incomes, particularly where wheat is an established food-staple, consumption in some developing markets will potentially be more vulnerable. Conversely, demand for basic grain-based foods could be underpinned in many countries if there is a move away from costlier alternatives during difficult economic times. World consumption is projected to grow by an annual average of nearly 2% in the period to 2025/26, slightly fas- ter than in the preceding five years. To some extent this ref- lects a recovery in feed usage from a relatively low level at the start of the forecast period, in part because of a tighter outlook for maize supply and demand in certain countries, including in China. World feeding is seen rising to 156m t in 2025/26, up by 18m compared with 2020/21, which was