Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

85 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 the lowest in seven years. Despite the projected increase in use, the share of feeding in overall world demand remains broadly stable, at 19% of the total. Food use maintains a share of about 70% of total wheat demand, with average annual growth picking up a little from the slightly slower than usual pace at the start of the outlook period. Nevertheless, at 1.5%, this is somewhat below the rate of increase a decade or so earlier. Demand gains continue to be mainly linked to population increase, but with per capita use also rising in some regions, especi- ally in parts of Asia and Africa. However, even in these re- gions, the rate of food demand growth is assumed to dece- lerate as consumption of wheat-based foods may approach saturation levels. Overall, world food usage is projected to climb by 42m t compared with 2020/21, to 572m. Little change in industrial use is foreseen, as any food-related gain for starch is likely to be offset by less interest in usage for biofuels, as feedstocks for that purpose progressively shift to non-food sources. Stocks Global carryover stocks of wheat are projected to conti- nue to build in the next five years but, similar to the case in recent seasons, much of the accumulation is predicted to be in China. Inventories in the major exporters show only a small gain, as modest recoveries from below-normal levels in the EU and Russia are partly countered by slight draw- downs elsewhere, including in the USA. Following succes- sive bumper harvests, India's stocks are seen reaching a record level at the end of 2020/21. While further stock growth is assumed for India in the early part of the proje- ction period, volumes recede slightly thereafter, to post a modest net fall by 2025/26. At a record 326m t at the end of 2025/26, world stocks are projected to increase by 34m compared with 2020/21. Stocks in China rise by 35m t, to 175m, some 54% of the global total. Inventories in the major expor- ters gain a net 5m t, while those in India contract by 3m. The ratio of world stocks-to-use increases by about one percentage point relative to 2020/21, to 39.9%, and compared with an average of 36.3% in the five years to 2020/21. Trade After a modest fall at the start of the outlook period, global trade is projected to accelerate to record levels from 2022/23, and is seen climbing to almost 194m t by 2025/26. This represents a net increase of about 8m t compared with the estimate for 2020/21, with most of the growth in Far East Asia and Africa. Egypt is predicted to remain the number one global importer, with Indone- sia cementing its position as second largest buyer. Solid gains are foreseen elsewhere in Pacific Asia, including in the Philippines and South Korea, partly for feed. In South Asia, the increasing popularity of whe- at-based foods will likely see a continued rise in imports by Bangladesh, but domestic harvests are expected to remain sufficient to fill consumption needs in India. Little overall change in imports is envisaged in Near East Asia, but much will depend on the size of local harvests, which tend to be variable. Turkey remains the largest regional bu- yer in Near East Asia, partly for re-export, followed by Sau- di Arabia, whose purchases will be contained by the recent resumption of domestic wheat production. Solid growth in aggregate imports by sub-Saharan Africa is assumed, as per capita use continues to rise from a low base, with total purchase volumes reaching new peaks. The overall share of world wheat trade filled by the major exporters is maintained at around 93% over the five years, but with continued shifts between the origins. Russia remains the top exporter, with the average share of exports edging upward compared with the previous five years. A small increase is assumed for Ukraine's share, but a decrease for Kazakhstan, and the overall proportion of glo- bal exports taken by the Black Sea region is maintained at about 34%. In the next five-years, Australia's exports may not reach the high level that is anticipated for the 2020/21 season, which follow a bumper harvest, but, on average, Australia's overall share of world trade increases a little. The proportions of world exports taken by the EU and Argen- tina are seen expanding, but the US share may continue its long-term decline amid competition from other origins. MAIZE OUTLOOK TO 2025/26 Because of projected increases in both acreage and yiel- ds, world production is forecast to reach successive record highs across the outlook period. World consumption is fo- recast at consecutive peaks, but growth in food and feed uptake is expected to slow from the recent average pace. Source: IGC Global maize supply and demand