Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

88 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 exportable supplies, could see deliveries to most regions set new records. Yet, other feedgrains may compete at times, while increasing meat imports may limit feed purchases in places, notably in parts of Pacific Asia and sub-Saharan Af- rica. After modest growth in 2021/22, owing to smaller assumed purchases by the EU-27, global trade is forecast to accelerate. With an average annual expansion of 2.5% over the rest of the forecast period, world imports are pro- jected to reach 206m t by 2025/26, some 21m above the 2020/21 estimate. Despite competition from alternative feeds, the EU-27 is likely to retain its position as the world's largest importer of maize, followed by Mexico. After a projected surge in imports in 2020/21, China is expected to remain a much larger buyer than in recent seasons, with arrivals averaging 13.5m t during the next five years, mainly for the growing livestock sector. However, due to uncertainty about the size of its grain stockpiles, supply and demand projections remain tentati- ve. Elsewhere in Pacific Asia, imports by Vietnam are set to advance strongly on increasing feed requirements from its pig, broiler and aquacul- ture industries. Import needs in some other re- gional importers are also anticipated to rise, but volumes will rest on price competitiveness aga- inst lower-grade wheat. Prospects for expanded poultry production should underpin buying in North Africa and Near East Asia, where gains are likely to be led by Egypt and Iran, respectively. With limited production gains envisaged el- sewhere, the share of world trade served by the four main exporters is forecast to edge slightly higher, averaging 89% during the next five years. US shipments are forecast to average some 8m t higher amid increased sales to China, with 2025/26 deliveries (Jul/Jun) of 67.9m t up moderately from the record forecast for 2020/21. Still, because of expanding presence of other main origins, the US may lose some market share, albeit maintaining its position as the world's leading exporter. Amid solid gains projected in output, coupled with further development of the Northern Arc export hubs, shipments by Brazil are seen at consecutive highs from 2022/23 onwards, but those by Argentina may not exceed the 2019/20 peak. After a drop in the current season because of a disappointing harvest, dispatches by Ukraine are forecast to rise again, potenti- ally hitting new records from 2021/22 and accounting for around 17% of global deliveries on average. RICE Following on from a forecast record outturn in 2020/21, world rice production is anticipated to trend higher in the next five years. Gains will predominantly be due to impro- ved yields as prospects for area growth in the major rice producing regions of Asia appear limited. However, while remaining a relatively small producing region, sub-Saharan African output is expected to grow especially quickly as po- licy initiatives to promote production encourage planting. Global rice consumption is set to reach a new peak in 2020/21 as expanded food security schemes, principally in India, supported uptake, although per-capita use in some regions declined. While population growth will continue to underpin larger food requirements through to 2025/26, changing consumer preferences in Far East Asia, the wor- ld’s biggest consuming region, may contain growth in food Source: IGC Global soyabean supply and demand Source: IGC Global rice supply and demand