Miller Magazine Issue: 134 February 2021

89 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / february 2021 uptake. This includes China, where stocks are tentatively seen broadly stabilising in the coming years amid official efforts to better manage inventories and maintain crop qu- ality. Nevertheless, global inventories are likely to continue growing, led by gains in India. Trade is projected to expand as larger requirements in sub-Saharan Africa underpin de- mand, while India is seen remaining the world’s biggest exporter. SOYABEANS Building on record output in 2020/21, world producti- on is projected to reach successive highs during the medi- um-term, mainly on increases in the US and Brazil. Against the backdrop of elevated international prices, a sizeable increase in acreage is anticipated in 2021/22, before ga- ins moderate thereafter, while yields are assumed to gently trend higher. Despite the significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world economic activity, consumption is seen rising to a new peak in 2020/21 on growth in uptake of soyameal in China, tied to a recovery in pig herds and rising poultry output. With the Council assuming pig stocks will be fully restored to pre-ASF levels in the early part of the forecast period, growth may moderate. Nevertheless, consumption is still seen reaching succes- sive highs, with growing local and international demand also likely to support increased processing and use in the major exporters. Additionally, growth in biodiesel sectors in Brazil, the US and Argentina, could contribute to expanded soyabean oil use through to 2025/26. A modest recovery in world inventories is likely, tied to expectations for some stock rebuilding in the major expor- ters. In addition, a gentle increase in the global stocks/use ratio is predicted. Despite restrictions aimed at countering the spread of coronavirus, there was very little impact on trade flows, with volumes surging to a record in 2019/20. After a marginal fall in 2020/21, shipments are predicted to expand continuously during the medium term, by an ave- rage of 1.7% per annum, with gains largely tied to bigger deliveries to Asia. Compared to the prior five-year period, this would represent a deceleration of growth and is lin- ked to a potential moderation of China's import demand growth. Other buyers in the region are set to secure more, while the EU will remain an important market given the likelihood of tight local rapeseed supplies. On the exporter side, few structural changes are anticipa- ted, with the three majors continuing to account for about 90% of global trade. Brazil is expected to maintain its po- sition as the preeminent supplier, accounting for more than half of global import demand throughout, with improved in- frastructure and logistics set to see Northern Arc ports hand- le more business. Elsewhere, after an initial retreat, modest increases in US shipments are likely in future seasons. *For more detail please visit www.igc.int