Miller Magazine Issue: 135 March 2021

canada 84 MILLER / march 2021 special crops are forecast to decrease slightly due to a return to trend yields, resulting in expected total field crop pro- duction decreasing to 97.1 mt. WHEAT SECTOR IN CANADA Canada’s wheat sector is at the heart of Canadian agriculture. Wheat produc- tion has a gross farm value of $7 billion annually. Grown on 9.7 million hectares which produce an average of 32 million tonnes, it is Canada’s largest acreage field crop. Every year, Canada exports between 20-24 million tonnes of wheat to more than 60 countries, with an addi- tional 8-10 million tonnes used domesti- cally for food, animal feed, and industrial uses. Wheat acreage in Canada has declined by about 10% over the last 20 years due largely to global surpluses of wheat, reduced world prices for high-quality wheat and declining farm profitability for wheat in comparison with other crop options. However, there has been a sub- stantial improvement in wheat yield over time, from an average of 2.2 t/ha in the mid-1990s to an average of 3.4 t/ha between 2016-2019 due to a combination of genetic improvements and agronomic practices. Canadian wheat is known on the world stage for its high-quality parameters and cleanliness. Approximate- ly three-quarters of Canadian wheat is exported to key markets such as Japan, South East Asia, Central and South America and the United States and emerging mar- kets such as South America, West Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East have a growing capacity to become regular customers. DURUM PRODUCTION For 2020-2021 season, Statistics Canada is reporting durum production at 6.57 mt, a +31% change year over year thanks to an increase in seeded area (+16%), har- vested area (+21%) and a 9% increase in yields to 2.86 t/ha, the second-highest on record since 2016-2017. To- tal supply is estimated at 7.3 Mt, 6% more than last year and 2% more than the last five-year average. Thanks to strong international demand, in particular from Europe and North Africa, exports of durum continue to move briskly, with volumes in January outpacing 2019/2020 volumes by 15%. Forecasted exports for 2020-2021 were raised slightly from the January report to 5.45 Mt, a record high if realized. SECOND-HIGHEST WHEAT PRODUCTION For 2020-2021, the total supply of Canadian wheat (excluding durum) is forecast at 33.5 Mt. According to Statistics Canada, 2020-21 wheat production is reported at 28.6 Mt, the second-highest on record since 2013- 2014 and 14% greater than the last five-year average. Exports are forecast at 21 mt, 10% more than the pre- vious year and 18% more than the last five-year average, underpinned by continued strong demand from China. Domestic use is revised up to 7.6 mt on higher food use, while carry-out stocks are revised downward to 5.0 Mt. For 2021-2022, the seeded area is revised downward to 7.5 million hectares, as competition for land increas- es with ongoing strength in the prices for most crops expected to continue through 2021. Assuming average yields, production is projected to decrease 8% year over year, for a total supply of 31.5 mt. Exports are revised downward to 19 mt on uncertainty surrounding China maintaining its current aggressive purchasing behavior. FOURTH-LARGEST BARLEY PRODUCER In Canada, 23,000 farmers produce roughly eight mil- lion tonnes of barley annually. Canadian barley is primar- ily used as feed for livestock, and malt for the beer in- dustry. Canada is the fourth-largest barley producer and the second-largest malt exporter in the world. Annually, $1 billion is directly generated from the export of feed barley and malt. Globally the demand for Canadian bar- ley and barley value-added products continues to grow. For 2020-21, the total barley supply in Canada reached a ten-year high at 11.8 mt, due to good production, de- spite low carry-in stocks. Statistics Canada (STC) report- ed that total exports of barley for the August-December 2020 period increased by 45% compared to the same period a year ago, including a 62% rise in raw barley