Miller Magazine Issue: 135 March 2021

canada 85 MILLER / march 2021 Wheat Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 32348 35187 32748 Consumption 8816 8516 8423 Export 24349 26450 24000 Source: Statistics Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) Wheat Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 32348 35187 32748 Consumption 8816 8516 8423 Export 24349 26450 24000 Source: Statistics Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 10383 10741 10615 Consumption 7298 7457 6975 Export 3054 3600 3500 Source: Statistics Canada Corn Production, Consumption and Imports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Wheat Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 32348 35187 32748 Consumption 8816 8516 8423 Export 24349 26450 24000 Source: Statistics Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 10383 10741 10615 Consumption 7298 7457 6975 Export 3054 3600 3500 Source: Statistics Canada Corn Production, Consumption and Imports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 13404 13563 13308 Consumption 14331 14123 13808 Imports 2184 1700 1800 Source: Statistics Canada Soybean Production, Consumption and Exports in Canada (1000 Tons) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 grain exports and a 5% drop in barley product exports. For the entire crop year, total exports are expected to be 3.6 mt, 18% higher than last year and the highest level since 2008. For 2021-22 season, the area seeded to barley in the country is forecast to increase by 4% to 3.2 million hectares, as a result of good prices and historically low carry-in stocks. Harvest area is projected to be up by 1% and yields to be down by 3%, using the previous five-year averages, which leads to a 1% decrease in the production forecast. Supply is forecast to drop by 3% from the previous year to 11.4 mt, but still reach the sec- ond-highest level since 2010. Domestic use is anticipated to drop on lower feed use. Exports are expected to be lower than the level of the previous year, but still strong, as purchases by Canada’s major barley importers are anticipated to remain strong. In addition, an abundant domestic supply is also support- ive for exports. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise on ample supply and reduced exports and domestic use. DECREASE IN CORN AREA For 2020-21, total corn supply in Canada is expected to increase by 1% from last year to 17.8 mt, the third-high- est level on record, which is a mixed result of a sharp increase in carry-in stocks, a slight increase in production and a decrease in expected imports. Statistics Canada reported that corn imports for the September-December 2020 period decreased by 4% from the same period in 2019, while exports increased almost four-fold, but were still lower than the export lev- els attained in 2018 and 2017. For the entire crop year, corn imports are expected to be lower than last crop year at 1.7 mt due to good domestic feed grain supplies. Ca- nadian corn exports are expected to increase to 1.4 mt, versus 677 thousand tonnes last year, largely due to the anticipated increase in exports to the EU. For 2021-22, the area seeded to corn in the country is forecast to decrease by 3% from 2019-20 to 1.4 million hectares, as some corn area is forecast to shift to oil- seeds. Production is forecast to decrease by 2% to 13.3 mt on forecasts for lower harvested area, and imports are expected to increase accordingly. Supply is projected to drop by 2% from 2020-21, mainly due to lower carry-in stocks and production. Exports are projected to remain stable. SOYBEANS EXPORTS For 2020-2021, domestic supplies of soybeans are estimated up 4% from last year to 7.4 mt, versus 7.1 mt last year, as a result of a marginal increase in carry-in stocks and a 3%, or 0.2 mt, increase in production. Canadian exports of soybeans are estimated up by 23%, to 4.4 mt for the current crop year, on combined strong world demand and higher domestic supplies. Do- mestic processing of soybeans is forecast to increase by 9% from last year to a historically normal 1.9 mt, on strong crush margins and strong demand for vegetable oils and protein meal. The factors to watch for the rest of the crop year are: 1. strength of Chinese buying, 2. South American production, 3. Brazilian shipping pace, 4. possible US imports of Brazilian soybeans and 5. US planting intentions for 2021-22. For 2021-2022, planted area in Canada is forecast to rise by 12% to 2.3 million hectares, on support from high prices with area gains limited by concerns over low sub- soil moisture, the short growing season in western Can- ada and attractive prices for competing crops. Assuming 5-year average yields, production is forecast at 6.6 mt, versus 6.4 mt in 2020-21 and 6.1 mt grown in 2019- 2020. Total supply is forecast to increase to 7.6 mt as the rise in production and slightly higher imports more than offset lower carry-in. Exports are forecast to increase by 14% t 5.0 mt, with shipments headed to a diverse gr up of countries. Domestic processing is forecast stable at 1.9 mt. SOURCE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Canadian Grain Commission Canada Grains Council