Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

102 MILLER / aprıl 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS The safrinha corn 2020/21 in Brazil is 100% planted, which is extremely late. In a more normal year, the vast majority of corn is usually planted by the end of Febru- ary, with a small percentage in early March. In the future, dry weather is the biggest potential problem for safrinha maize, with the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and São Paulo being the main problem. FAS USDA maintains its corn production forecast for 20/21 at 105MMT based on the smaller-than-expected first crop of corn paired with widespread delayed planting of second-crop “saf- rinha” corn. This is one of the lowers expectation on the market. For MY 2021/22 (March 2022–February 2023), they set its initial corn production forecast at 114 MMT. Argentina's recent rainfall appears to be sufficient to stabilize the crop at slightly lower levels, at least for now. The provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa received some good rains over the weekend, with up to 5 inches in some areas. Weekend rains were usually confined to the extreme north and far south of Argentina, while the central region remained largely arid. Rainfall in Argentina has been very irregular during this growing season, so we should expect irregular yields. The forecast requires only a limited amount of precipitation, so crops are not immune to renewed deterioration if precipitation disap- points in the future. Argentina's corn crop made 7% late last week, up from 15.8% last year and 14% on average. South Korea temporarily lifts import duties on corn to stabilize prices. China is calm, still doesn’t make any of- ficial announcement about import quota, but sells wheat from state reserves for feed consumption. ASF again on the floor. WHEAT The demand for old-crop wheat is low. Past tenders have increased pressure on prices, which continue to de- cline rapidly. SAGO, Saudi Arabia, purchased 95kMT of 12.5% durum wheat in a tender. Wheat was purchased at an average price of US $ 271.05 per tonne from C&F for May-June delivery. Ethiopia, which announced a tender for 400kMT of milling wheat on April 20, has announced the need to buy another 30kMT of grain, StoneX reported. Algeria bought 480kMT of wheat at an average price of $ 279 for delivery in May, which is in line with the current price offer and also did not support the market and few days later booked 30kmt of milling wheat in its tender at $280 CFR . Tunisia's state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase 75k of soft wheat from optional origins The tender closes on Thursday, April 8, wheat is sought in three 25k consignments for shipment May 15- June 25 depending on origin supplied. These were probably the last tenders for the current crop. Egypt held its first wheat tender in the new market- ing year, having bought 5 boats of Russian and 1 boat of Ukrainian origin at prices in line with expectations of Russian exporters for August. The cost of wheat on the FOB basis is $ 233-234 per ton, while the freight cost is higher than in previous tenders - over $ 19 / t for a Panamax from Ukraine and from $ 18 for shipment from Russian ports. Such activity of Russian exporters caused slight bewilderment in the market since a floating duty on grain should be in effect in the country at the time of shipment, which is unlikely to be calculated before the moment of shipment. This could be a reason why Egypt announced tender in advance. The index, which began calculating the Moscow Ex- change in test mode, will be averaged weekly and ad- justed by the amount indicated by the government (for