Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

104 MILLER / aprıl 2021 MARKET ANALYSIS announcement – domestic prices are weaker but still high. In Tunisia, crops of wheat and barley received sufficient rainfall. USDA attache predicts wheat and barley produc- tion in 2021/22 MY at 1.2MMT and 650kMT, respectively, with imports at 2.1MMT and 700kMT, FAS USDA reports. VEGOILS MARKET Oil complex under pressure of palm and soybean oil. Contrary to market expectations, an increase in oil pro- duction by OPEC countries supported prices, as inves- tors saw in this a signal for a recovery in demand. In Brazil, 78% of soybean acreage had been harvested at the end of last week, up from 83% last year and 78% on average, according to AgRural. The Mato Grosso soybean crop at the end of last week was 99.4% harvested, up from 99.8% last year and an average of 99.8%, IMEA said. An- alysts expect soybean yields to range from 133MMT to 137MMT due to insignificant differences in area estimates and potential yields. At the same time, according to bath- houses CONAB, the cost of transporting grain to ports in February has been increased by 25% compared to last year. Soybean shipments from Brazil are at a record pace. Sunseedman reports that the first 38.5kMT ship of the Ar- gentine seed, Epiphania, is already on its way to Romania. The second boat, Tomini Liberty, is nominated with 25kMT sunflower and 10kMT soybeans also for Romania. The third 20kMT cargo on the Faneromeni was nominated from Portugal. The report says that the Romanian boats may also be intended for Moldovan buyers. It also became known that the shipped seeds had problems with oil content and weeds during loading. Russia has officially set a duty of 50% but not less than $ 320 per ton per seed from June 1, 2021. In addition, the gov- ernment approved the parameters of a floating duty on the export of sunflower oil from September 1, 2021, to August 31, 2022, 70% duty will be levied on the difference between the base price of USD 1,000 per tonne and indicative - the arith- metic average prices for the month, reduced by the value of the adjustment factor of USD 50 per tonne. The Ministry of Agriculture will monitor the market to establish the indicative price. The EAEU countries are not subject to this provision. Soybean import margins in Dalian are declining, so soy- bean imports to China in June-August may be lower than forecast, but it should not be underestimated, according to Cofeed. According to them, farmers are reluctant to re- plenish pigs amid the resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, and aquaculture is now not in full swing, which has led to a decrease in food trade. Stocks of rape- seed meal have been increased by 3.2% to 74,300 tonnes as of the end of last week, which negatively affects meal prices. But critical margins on soybean and rapeseed fu- tures were negative on domestic exchanges, which af- fected further purchases of rapeseed cargo by proces- sors. In addition, there will be a downtime period for many creameries in April, which will spur the rapeseed meal market. The short-term rapeseed meal market is forecast- ed to fluctuate within a narrow range. However, soybean shipments to China still cannot be underestimated in the second quarter as sales of soybeans in Brazil have been on the rise since April. And because of the downward trend in pork prices, domestic producers are slowly re- plenishing stocks. Besides, feed manufacturers have ad- justed their formulas due to excessively high corn prices and have used wheat and paddy rice instead of corn, so high protein wheat will also cut back on soybean meal. Thus, the soybean meal market remains sluggish and stocks are growing, while processors are rushing to speed up shipments. Meanwhile, good performance in the oil market also has a negative impact on meal prices. In general, the short-term soybean meal market is pro- jected to fluctuate in the short term and it is advisable to keep small stocks. So, we started the new wave of calming on weather and planting pace. Maybe Evergreen will give us new memes – who knows?