Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

18 MILLER / aprıl 2021 The two cornerstones of the 5 years outlook for grains and oilseeds Guest Author “If growth in average yields matches recent trends, and assuming normal weather, global grain pro- duction is projected at successive records during the next five years to 2025/26. This will be suffi- cient to keep pace with projected demand growth, but will allow little rebuilding of stocks, with the ratio of total grains stocks-to-use tightening a little.” The last 5 years projection on Supply and Demand for the major grains published by the International Grains Council (https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-forecasts.aspx) explain why there should be no complacency about pro- ductivity gain and trade facilitation in order to sustain global balance sheet as well as trade needs for importing coun- tries. The following projections are a possible supply and de- mand scenario for the next five-year period to 2025/26, taking account of a number of broad assumptions, histor- ical trends and experts analyses of demand trend in post Covid-19 era. If growth in average yields matches recent trends, and assuming normal weather, global grain (wheat plus coarse grains) production is projected at successive records during the next five years to 2025/26. This will be sufficient to keep pace with projected demand growth, but will al- low little rebuilding of stocks, with the ratio of total grains stocks-to-use tightening a little. While the rate of stock depletion for maize (corn) is pro- jected to slow compared with the recent seasons, the out- look for world maize supply and demand remains relatively tight. In comparison, world balance sheets for other grains remain relatively comfortable and only minor changes over the baseline for other grains. International grain trade is seen expanding by an aver- age rate of 2 percent annually, led by higher shipments of wheat and maize. The overall share of world wheat trade filled by the major exporters is maintained at around 93% over the five years, but with continued shifts between the origins. Expanding milling wheat imports account for much of the growth in wheat trade. While annual increases in maize trade is expected to be slower than in recent years, rising feed needs will contin- ue to drive growth in maize shipments, predominantly in developing countries. With limited production gains envis- aged elsewhere, the share of world trade served by the four main maize exporters is forecast to edge slightly high- Arnaud Petit Executive Director The International Grains Council (IGC)