Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

90 MILLER / aprıl 2021 INTERVIEW interests of our members, who at the time of the deci- sion were signed contracts for the volume far exceeding 5 million tons. It is easy to calculate how much losses would have been recorded if the initial decision had been made to introduce the duty from 01/01/2021. The gradual schedule of duties was the result of a compromise be- tween the authorities and exporters. As for the floating duty, many players and "experts" at that time simply lost sight of the fact that it exists and that its zero rate will expire from 01/07/2021. I believe that a high proportion of the emotions of some commentators is due precisely to the fact of their professional error in this matter. Work- ing for the initiators of the restrictions, they did not take into account that the Government is unlikely to extend the zero floating duty rate, limiting exports to only a few months. On the contrary, the formula for calculating the duty has been refined in such a way as to add uncertain- ty to pricing and increase the risk of export transactions. Traders will have to transfer this risk to their suppliers, which will contribute to a further decrease in prices on the domestic market, as the initiators of the duty sought. As for the question whether everyone understands the destructive nature of the duty, the answer is obvious - yes. Today it is already useless to discuss this issue, especially with those who by their actions contributed to the emergence of this mechanism. We see it as our task to limit the application of the float- ing duty to the new season, or rather to the 2021 calen- dar year. I do not think that its zeroing is possible earlier than the 4th quarter of 2021, based on the calendar of social life in Russia. If we restrict ourselves to 2021, then the losses of the farming sector from falling prices will be localized and will not affect production plans and crop rotation in 2022. As for 2021, I do not believe in ma- jor changes in the crop structure, since the main players bought seeds and fertilizers even last year, before the restrictions were even introduced. For the world market, the effect of the floating duty, or rather the risks associated with it, will reduce the supply from Russia. The level of world prices will depend on the situation with the new harvest and grain supply from the EU and Ukraine, our traditional competitors. Do you think Russia can maintain world leadership in wheat exports despite export restrictions? World leadership is not an end in itself. The Govern- ment has clearly announced that national food security is a priority over agricultural export revenues. In the lon- ger term, as I said, global climate change plays into the hands of Russia. With the growth of the harvest, we can easily restore all lost positions. Russia is the world's top wheat export- er. And Turkey is the world leader in flour exports. Russia is the main wheat source for Turkish flour industrialists. How the ex- port restrictions have influenced the grain shipment between the two countries? This is a very good question. My company recently acquired a mill for the first time. We have never dealt with processing, but now we believe that the time has come. The Rus- sian government has repeatedly pointed out the need to move away from the export of raw materials towards products with high added value. Even if restrictions on grain