Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

96 MILLER / aprıl 2021 Country Profile als (mostly wheat, rye, barley, maize, millet and sorghum, followed by oil crops, olives, vegetables and grapes, roots and tubers, sugar and orchards). Cereals and vegetables are food commodities with the highest production by weight accounting for nearly 30% (26 billion EUR) of the total EU food exports, while maintaining domestic staple food supply. About 20% of the EU’s wheat crop is exported annual- ly, as oilseeds, animal feedstuff and rice are imported in large quantities. More than half of grain grown in the EU are wheat. The remaining 50% is composed of maize and barley, each representing about one-third. The last third in- cludes cereals grown in smaller quantities such as rye, oats and spelt. The EU’s grains are mostly used for animal feed (nearly two-thirds); one-third is directed at human consump- tion, while only 3% is used for biofuels. Around two-thirds of rice consumed by Europeans is grown in the EU. The rest is complemented by imports of different varieties, from India or Cambodia for example. A small quantity of EU rice is exported. COCERAL REVISED ITS CROP FORECAST In its revised forecast for the 2020 crop, COCERAL, the European association representing the trade in cereals, rice, feedstuffs, oilseeds, olive oil, oils and fats and agro supply, sees the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 301.8 million t. This is marginally down from the 302.7 million t seen in the first forecast and 6.1 mln t down from the 2019 level of 307.9 million t. Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 135.4 mil- lion t down from the previous 137.9 million t and from last year’s 145.7 million t. The expected decrease is mainly due to a further significant acreage reduction in the UK due to abundant rains during the planting season last fall. The EU’s 2020 barley production is now forecast at 61.5 million t, up from the 60.8 million t seen in the first forecast, but down from the 62.2 million t last year. This is mainly due to a higher than previously expected spring barley area in the UK which is expected to benefit from lower winter wheat and rapeseed plantings. The EU’s 2020 corn crop is still expected to reach 65.5 million t and thus more than last year’s 61.0 million t. The corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting cam- paign for winter grains. It is therefore seen at 9.0 million ha versus 8.5 million ha in 2019. The most notable year- on-year increases in production are expected for France, Germany and Poland. OUTLOOK FOR EU GRAIN MARKET The EU economy starts to see light at the end of the tunnel, although significant uncertainties remain, especial- ly with respect to the speed of the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the risk of the emergence of new virus variants that would be resistant to existing vaccines. The second quarter could see the start of the relaxation of confinement measures and further reopening of food services, assuming a progressing rollout of the vaccination. The first 2021 edition of the short-term outlook for EU ag- ricultural markets published by the European Commission concludes that the EU agricultural sector showed resilience throughout the Covid-19 crisis. The sector did relatively well thanks to increased retail sales and home consumption. In addition, prospects are favorable with dynamic global de- EU : Area Forecasts 6 EVOLUTION OF THE EU 27 CEREALS AREA (million ha) 2020/2021 Estimate Mar Forecast vs. 2020/2021 (%) Soft wheat 20.7 21.5 4.1 Durum wheat 2.1 2.2 2.9 Barley 11.3 11.4 0.9 Maize 8.9 9.0 0.4 Rye 2.2 2.0 -6.0 Oats 2.6 2.5 -2.3 Total 52.3 52.9 1.1 2021/2022 Source: DG AGRI - G4