Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

97 MILLER / aprıl 2021 Country Profile mand and the reopening of food services expected once the vaccination campaign is sufficiently advanced. “Prices for all main cereals have increased, in line with global prices. Global consumption is also estimated to grow, mainly driven by animal feed demand. EU cereals production could reach 295.2 million tonnes for 2020/21, an increase of 5.3% compared to last year,” the report said. EU cereals trade flows in 2020/21 are forecast at 44.3 million t for exports and 22.6 million t for imports. Com- pared to the high levels in 2019/20, it represents a drop of -26% and -10% respectively. Still, while EU soft wheat and maize stocks could decline and consumption of other cereals (barley, durum wheat, oats and rye) could increase (+3.8%/5-year average). EU cereals stock-to-use ratio is ex- pected to remain stable at 16.5% year-on-year. Trade policies in leading cereals exporting and importing countries significantly affected EU markets. In particular, the wheat export taxes imposed by Russia pushed both world and EU prices up. Furthermore, strong Chinese demand for barely has created a price premium in those EU countries, which are approved origins for exports to China. FAIR OUTLOOK FOR EU CEREALS IN 2021/22 Sown areas for winter cereals are estimated slightly above the low area of 2020/21. This should benefit wheat, with winter wheat sown areas increasing by 3.8% year- on-year and durum wheat by 2.9%. Winter wheat sowings should reach 20.1 million ha. Winter barley area is estimated to slightly decline at 4.7 million ha. A reduction in rye and triticale areas is expected as well. Despite a succession of cold and warm spells during winter, weather conditions have not widely affected winter crop development. Assuming average weather develop- ments during spring and summer, total EU cereals produc- tion could reach 292.5 million t (+5.3% year-on-year). Soft wheat production is forecast at 126.7 million t, barley at 56.3 million t and maize at 71.2 million t. Other coarse grains’ production could decline at 30.7 million t (-7% year-on-year). Given the increase foreseen in certain animal produc- tions for 2021, it is expected that the demand for animal feed will increase by 0.7% in 2021/22 compared to 2020/21. EU total feed demand could reach 163.8 million t. Industrial uses of barley (malting barley) could recover to 6.7 million t. YIELDS GROWTH EXPECTED FOR ARABLE CROPS SECTOR EU production growth of arable crops is expected to be limited over the next decade. However, digitization will be at the heart of yield productivity gains, improved labor con- ditions and higher environmental standards. These are just a few of the projections for the arable crops market from the European Union agricultural outlook for 2020-30 report EU : Production Forecasts 7 EVOLUTION OF THE EU 27 CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTION (million tonnes) 2019/2020 2020/2021 Mar Estimate Mar Forecast vs. 2020/2021 (%) Soft wheat 131.1 117.1 126.7 8.2 Durum wheat 7.4 7.2 7.6 6.1 Barley 55.0 54.7 56.3 2.9 Maize 70.1 64.9 71.2 9.7 Rye 8.3 8.9 7.9 -10.7 Oats 6.9 8.2 7.5 -8.9 Total 294.4 277.8 292.5 5.3 2021/2022 Source: DG AGRI -G4 EU 2021/2022 Usable Production: comparison with other forecasters 12 EU 27 Usable production, 2021/2022 (million tonnes) 25-March 18-March 11-March Soft Wheat 126.7 129.6 126.6 Durum Wheat 7.6 8.2 8.1 Barley 56.3 54.0 54.5 Maize 71.2 65.0 63.5 Rye 7.9 8.6 7.8 TotalCereals 292.5 284.2 283.5 Stratégie Grain COCERAL EC DG AGRI