Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

98 MILLER / aprıl 2021 Country Profile published by the European Commission. Total agricultural land is expected to decline by 0.5 million ha in the EU over the outlook period, reaching 161.2 million ha. Total EU cereal production is expected to remain stable over the outlook period, at 278 million t. Even though the agricultural area will decline, yields will increase thanks to enhanced crop rotations, improved soil management and increased use of decision support tools. EU total consump- tion should stabilize at 260 million t by 2030, with higher food use. As for trade, EU exports are due to strengthen with EU and world prices converging as well as proximity to importing markets such as the Mediterranean region and sub-Saharan Africa. Regarding oilseeds, total EU production is projected to increase thanks to sunflower and soy production grow- ing. With a slight rise of oilseed imports, crushing volumes should increase, with sustained demand for oilseed oil in the EU. Finally, consumption of vegetable oils is expected to decline, mostly due to decreasing palm oil imports. EU protein crops are projected to grow significantly. Pro- duction will be driven by a large increase in area and yield improvements. The strong demand for innovative plant pro- tein products and locally produced protein sourc- es should result in a 30% consumption rise. EUROPEAN FLOUR MILLING INDUSTRY The European flour mill- ing industry is the leading food industry in grain pro- cessing, using around 45 million tonnes of common wheat and rye plus 2 mil- lion tonnes of oats a year to produce around 35 mil- lion tons of flour on an annual basis (EU-27). According to the European Flour Milling As- sociation, the number of flour milling companies exceeds 3 800, of which a large majority are small and medium-sized companies. The European flour milling industry has al- ways been producing on a relatively small scale com- pared to its counterparts, no- tably in the US. For example, the average US flour mill pro- duces 13 times as much wheat flour as the average flour mill in Europe. The European flour milling sector employs over 45 000 people and estimated 350 000 indirect labor at the Euro- pean farm level due to its central position in the food chain (Source: LEI-Wageningen UR study). The European Flour Milling Association defines three constraints that the sector is facing today: • acute pressure from 3rd countries on traditional wheat flour export markets • a structural overcapacity, as the sector is running in av- erage at 65% of its capacity • declining consumption of bread in most European countries Bread consumption patterns differ widely within the EU but most countries have an average consumption of 50 kg of bread per person per year. The highest consumption levels are recorded in Bulgaria (app. 95 kg), although the lowest consumption is in the UK (app. 32 kg). The market structure varies throughout Europe. For example, in the UK the industrial sector representing 80% of production, it is 40% in Germany, 35% in France and 19% in Spain. (Thousand t) 5Y_TRMAVG (2015 - 2019) Algeria 3 048 3 188 5% China 922 3 079 234% Saudi Arabia 3 057 2 497 -18% +6% Utd. Kingdom 1 064 1 546 45% Nigeria 375 1 135 203% Morocco 590 1 023 73% Others 11 562 9 476 -18% Source:Eurostat- Comext@17Feb2021 2020-21 EU all cereals export destinations (July - December) Algeria 15% China 14% Saudi Arabia 11% Utd. Kingdom 7% Nigeria 5% Morocco 5% Others 43% 21.9m t 2020-21 Algeria 15% China 4% Saudi Arabia 15% Utd. Kingdom 5% Nigeria 2% Morocco 3% Others 56% 5Y_TRMAVG (2015 - 2019) 20.6m t (Thousand t) 5Y_TRMAVG (2015 -2019) Brazil 2 829 4 131 46% -8% Ukraine 4 406 2 793 -37% Canada 1 034 1 658 60% Utd. Kingdom 1 556 970 -38% Serbia 316 824 161% Others 2 291 1 097 -52% Source:Eurostat-Comext@17Feb2021 2020-21 EU all cereals import origins (July - December) Brazil 36% Ukraine 24% Canada 14% Utd. Kingdom 9% Serbia 7% Others 10% 11.5m t 2020-21 Brazil 23% Ukraine 35% Canada 8% Utd.Kingdom 13% Serbia 3% Others 18% 5Y_TRMAVG (2015 - 2019) 12.4m t