Miller Magazine Issue: 136 April 2021

99 MILLER / aprıl 2021 Country Profile Europe's heat and drought crop losses tripled in 50 years The severity of crop losses driven by heat waves and drought have tripled in the last fifty years in Europe, according to a study that highlights the vul- nerability of food systems to climate change. Research published recently in the journal Environ- mental Research Letters, looked at agricultural produc- tion in 28 European countries—the current European Union and United Kingdom—from 1961 to 2018. They compared this to data on extreme weath- er events—droughts, heat waves, floods and cold snaps—and found evidence suggesting "climate change is already driving increasing crop losses in observational records". While all four became significantly more fre- quent over the 50-year time period, "the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled", from losses of 2.2 percent between 1964 and 1990 to 7.3 percent from 1991 to 2015. The study found that droughts in particular, which are becoming more frequent, are also becoming more and more intense: "the most severe events become disproportionately more severe". Overall, European crop yields still increased in the period, by almost 150 percent between 1964-1990 and 1991- 2015, said lead author Teresa Bras, from the Nova School of Science and Technology in Lisbon. But losses connected to extreme weather were different depending on the crop. "Cereals, a staple that oc- cupies nearly 65 percent of the EU's cultivated area and is mainly used for animal feed, is the crop most severely affected," said Bras. These showed "con- sistently larger losses" linked to droughts and heat spells than other crops, the report said, intensifying by more than 3 percent for every drought year. Re- searchers said this could be explained by the more widespread irrigation of other crops like vegetables, grape vines and fruit. Climate change is expected to multiply weather extremes, including heat waves and droughts and the study warned of "ripple effects" from impacts on Europe across the global food system and on food prices. The study said the punishing heat wave and drought of 2018 in Europe caused a decrease in grain production of 8 percent compared to the average of the previous five years, "which caused fodder shortages for livestock and triggered sharp commodity price increases". Since the 2015 Paris climate deal, the world has experienced its five hottest years on record. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that food production is "extremely sensitive" to cli- mate change. export import 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million tonnes Common wheat (incl. flourand groats) export import 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Million tonnes Durumwheat (incl. flour) export impor 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 Million tonnes Allcereals export import 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million tonnes Allwheat Row Labels 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 5Y_TRMAVG Barley including malt export 7263226 3733417 4080674 4329144 5557515 5255162 4655778 import 831550 916161 900989 506667 1478410 737981 882900 Common wheat (incl. flour and groats) export 13792377 13876772 11737129 9898445 15898992 14535959 13135426 import 2779544 2261104 1700323 2325373 1832836 1203614 2139771 Durumwheat (incl. flour) export 588740 752304 635250 450283 586194 316765 603395 import 1254310 833886 971682 607679 1005861 1597810 937143 Maize (Incl. processed products) export 1650988 1794000 1242312 1711746 2716334 1605437 1718912 import 6035059 4765066 7395705 10941393 10548156 7813444 7992973 Oats export 195252 87820 118782 70854 119490 73476 108697 import 41838 20416 21350 21287 66521 28420 28158 All cereals export 23613750 20326896 17914476 16574904 25078111 21945466 20618374 import 11125182 8918904 11209743 14961004 15026718 11471865 12431976 All wheat export 14381117 14629076 12372379 10348727 16485186 14852724 13794191 import 4033854 3094990 2672005 2933052 2838697 2801424 2955580 All coarse grains export 9232632 5697820 5542097 6226176 8592925 7092742 6838974 import 7091327 5823914 8537738 12027952 12188021 8670441 9219006 Cereals trade for the period July - December