Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

57 COVER STORY MILLER / june 2021 World grain markets heading towards a re- cord production in 2021/22 but only a mar- ginal increase foreseen for stocks. In its last grain market report, International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that world wheat production will reach 790 million tonnes in 2021/22 season. The Council also predict- ed that the world wheat trade will be 188 million tonnes in the forthcoming season with the increase in demand. Current prospects for world grain production point to a third suc- cessive year of moderate growth, with FAO’s first forecast for the world grain output in 2021 now pegged at nearly 2 821 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), a new record. Global wheat pro- duction is also expected to increase, up 1.4 percent year on year. In its last grain market report, International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that world wheat production will reach 790 million tonnes in 2021/22 season. The Council also predicted that the world wheat trade will be 188 million tonnes in the forthcoming season with the increase in demand. In recent days, the increase in prices of products such as soybeans, sunflower seeds, and particularly corn, causes more demand for wheat. For the major wheat exporters, 2021/22 production gains are expected in Ar- gentina, Ukraine, the EU-27 and the US, but with harvests in Aus- tralia, Russia, Canada and Kazakhstan seen smaller y/y. It seems that even though there is no problem in production, the intense demands that will arise will determine the price policy and thus, price pressure will occur in the market. Due to the pan- demic, many exporting companies are experiencing container shortages, high freight prices, and logistics problems on top of restrictions, quotas, and high taxation. In the past decades, consumers worldwide have grown accus- tomed to getting a substantial cover by buying cheap ex-harvest Black Sea wheat. This year, however, trading in new crop Black Sea wheat is lacking both enthusiasm and direction. Recently in- troduced Russian floating tax on grain exports which enters into force in the first week of June has effectively made it impossible to calculate the tax on forward grain deals. World flour and wheat markets