Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

58 COVER STORY MILLER / june 2021 At the time of writing, 2021/22 harvest operations were mainly limited to Asia and parts of North Africa, where mostly good results are expected. Just ahead of the start of the winter wheat combining season in Russia, Ukraine, the US and Europe, northern hemisphere crop prospects look broadly favourable. Recent weather has been mixed, but with some useful rains providing a time- ly boost for developing crops. However, some question marks remain about overly dry weather for spring variet- ies. Winter planting is also progressing quickly south of the equator, where exporters look set to expand acre- age. For the major wheat exporters, 2021/22 production gains are expected in Argentina, Ukraine, the EU-27 and the US, but with harvests in Australia, Russia, Canada and Kazakhstan seen smaller y/y. Cumulative output in these eight growers is placed at around 385m t, equal to the previous season, but 2% more than the prior five- year average. The EU-27 wheat crop is forecast 8% higher y/y, at 134.8m t, including 127.0m t of common wheat and 7.8m t of durum wheat. With area rebounding sharply after very difficult seeding condition in the season before, most of the upswing is linked to an increased acreage, particu- larly in France, the bloc’s largest producer. Conditions have been mixed so far, but with recent rainfall stabilising the outlook somewhat. Cooler than average tempera- tures have contributed to developmental delays, which could potentially lead to a later than normal harvest. It is shaping up to be another successful year for Russian wheat producers, albeit with forecast output of 79.3m t placed 7% below the prior season’s record. Although good rains have almost fully replenished soil moisture reserves in southern areas, some uncertainty remains about levels of winterkill. Losses were expected to be most severe in central regions, where temperature fluctuations were particularly wide. Spring planting made good progress, with farmers seemingly not dissuaded by recent changes to wheat export taxes. However, there are concerns about a lingering dry spell in eastern pro- ducing zones. Based on expectations for gains in both harvested area and yields, the scene is set for another huge world wheat harvest in 2021/22. However, with much of the global crop still in the field, much will depend on weather between now and the harvests. Based on conditions as of late-May, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts all-wheat (in- cluding durum) production at 790m t, up by 2% year-on-year (y/y) and potentially a new all-time peak. IGC: 2021/22 wheat supply outlook Nathan Kemp Economist International Grains Council (IGC)