Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

59 COVER STORY MILLER / june 2021 Despite some very dry soils during planting, conditions have improved steadily in Ukraine over the winter and early spring. As soil moisture reserves are plentiful in most regions, production is predicted to increase by 10% y/y, to 27.8m tonnes. US all wheat production is pegged 3% higher than last year, at 51.1m t, including 1.8m t of durum (-7% y/y), with cumulative output down by 3% compared to the re- cent average. Given increased plantings and recent wet weather, winter production is on course to exceed last year’s total, with HRW yield prospects in Kansas looking especially promising. However, spring wheat and durum outlooks in the northern Plains is currently worrisome, with recent showers providing only limited relief from drought. As well as concerns about productivity, the dry conditions have sparked significant doubts about wheth- er planting intentions will be fulfilled. The dry weather also stretched across the border into Canada, with the worst of the drought seen in the south and eastern parts of the Prairie Provinces. Although this was beneficial for spring sowings, regular rains are now required if yields are to come anywhere close to their full potential. With plantings of spring wheat expected to shrink amid stiff competition from alternative crops, mainly canola, all wheat production is projected to drop by 8% y/y, to 32.3m t. This includes an estimated 6.2m t of durum, potentially 6% less compared to the season before. While it is still very early on in the season, outlooks for the main southern hemisphere exporters are currently quite good. Sowings in Australia have progressed well, with farmers in western regions incentivised by high mar- ket prices and beneficial rains. Factoring in a rise in area, but with yields seen below the prior year’s excellent re- sult, output is tentatively seen about one-fifth lower y/y, at 26.3m t. In Argentina, farmers could reap potentially strong profits this year, especially in areas double-cropped with soyabeans. With acreage forecast to stay high, produc- tion could rebound by 15%, to 20.3m t. Among key importing regions, cumulative production in North Africa is seen 17% higher y/y, at 29.9m t, po- tentially a new record. Larger than average harvests are predicted in all of the main growers, including in Egypt, where use of irrigation is more widespread compared to its neighbours. The sharpest regional increase is expect- ed in Morocco, where wheat production is on track to reach 6.7m t, compared to just 2.6m t in the year before and including 2.2m t of durum (0.8m t in 2020/21). After a dry start to the season, conditions have been near- ly ideal since the turn of the year, including regular and widespread showers. Owing to the much heavier do- mestic supply outlook, the government recently moved to re-establish punitive import tariffs, with common wheat duties hiked from 0% to 135%, and durum duties from 0% to 170%. Weather in Algeria has not been quite as ben- eficial, seen too dry in central and western parts. With somewhat better conditions in the main western growing regions, output is seen little changed y/y, at 3.8m t, of which durum is expected to account for around 80%. The 2021 IGC Grains Conference, which takes place on 8-9 June 2021 (https://www.igc.int/en/conference/pro- gramme.aspx), provides an ideal forum for deeper analy- sis of the key supply (and demand) drivers in world grain, oilseed and rice markets. Expected to attract more than 400 participants from around the world, the programme includes 12 panel discussions, 10 side events, virtual ta- ble debates and exhibition rooms. A dedicated session on 9 June will focus on the prospects for the production of 2021/22 wheat (as well as maize and soyabeans) in the key suppliers. Discussions will also include the latest developments in yield monitoring, including through re- mote sensing technology, which may add further clarity to global supply chains.