Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

65 COVER STORY MILLER / june 2021 Romania & Bulgaria to get back in the Black Sea export game The MARS noted, “in Romania and Bulgaria, crops con- tinue to benefit from favorable weather conditions char- acterized by slightly below average temperatures and persistent rainfall. These regions also faced a drop in temperatures in April, which slowed down crop develop- ment in Bulgaria, while it had almost no impact on crops in Romania (e.g. Macroregiunea Patru)”. Better weather conditions promise improvement of wheat crop in 2021 after the last year’s dryness. European Commission fore- casts Romanian and Bulgarian wheat production 2021 at 9.12 MMT and 5.78 MMT, +2.7 MMT y/y and +1.1 MMT y/y, respectively, which is close to 2019 record figures of 10.28 MMT and 6.12 MMT. June rains could cause fungus diseases & furtherdelay theharvestingstart According to Agritel, “the Romanian plains as well as those of central Ukraine and the Russian Kuban have been well rained over the last 7 days with more than 30 mm. For the next 7 days, weather models anticipate equally heavy rainfall, even in areas that have remained dry recently, namely south-eastern Ukraine and the Russian Central District. These rains bode well for the production potential of the widely spiked wheat in the region, although adequate fungicide protection will be needed to preserve the quality of the future crop”. France and other competitors snap at Black Sea’s heels The main competitor of the Black Sea in the North Af- rica is the EU, namely France. According to the EU Com- mission, French soft wheat crop 2021 could increase by 6.4 MMT y/y to 35.5 MMT. In May, MARS noted, “in France, despite the dry conditions observed in April, bio- mass accumulation is proceeding in line with the aver- age (e.g. Centre). The impact of the dry conditions on biomass accumulation was mitigated by cold tempera- tures that reduced water demand and evaporation”. The USA and Argentina, which are the main Black Sea competitors in Asia, are also expected by the USDA to harvest good crops: the USA – 50.9 MMT (+1.3 MMT y/y and currently market is watching closely return of rains in the US plains), while for Argentina – at a record 20.5 MMT, + 2.9 MMT y/y. But for Argentina it is very early to believe in such a record crop. As of 26 May, wheat planting in the country is done on 10% out of 6.5 MLN HA plan. Such pace demonstrated a delay of 3.3% y/y due to recent rains. The last two competitors of the Black Sea countries in the market of Asia are Australia and Canada, and they are also seen to have quite a decent crop, although fig- ures in 2021 are expected at -6 MMT y/y for Australia (it