Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

70 COVER STORY MILLER / june 2021 man of the Union of Chambers of Agriculture of Turkey, predicted that the yield in Turkey would decrease by about 10% this year down to 18.5 million tonnes. It looks like this will be the lowest season since 2007. While the wheat situation in Turkey courses in this di- rection, when we look at the world wheat situation, al- though there is no problem in production, the factors I have just mentioned (natural disasters, commodity pric- es, etc.) will determine the prices in the market. Prices in Europe have reached 216 Euro/ton, the highest level since 2018. During the season, it is estimated that the prices will reach 220 Euro/ton. At the same time, in the latest report prepared by the International Grain Council, it was underlined that there will not be any problem in world production, and it was emphasized that the de- mand for raw materials would be intense in order to se- cure themselves from all countries. Stating that the world wheat production will reach 790 million tonnes, the council also predicted that the world wheat trade will be 188 million tonnes in the forthcom- ing 2021/2022 season with the increase in demand. The Council also predicted that while production is expected to decrease in Ukraine, European Union, Argentina, the USA, and Iran, it will increase in countries such as Aus- tralia, Russia, China, and India. However, predicting that the stocks will increase in the 2021/2022 season, the council noted that the carryover stocks, which were re- corded as 289 million tonnes last season, will be around 298 million tonnes increase in the 2021/2022 season by increasing 9 million tonnes. During such fast developments in wheat, flour industri- alists had their primary objectives in capital management and financial management on top of wheat purchase, flour production, raw material supply, stock risk, and technological problems. 563 registered flour mills, which are actively working in Turkey, have increased from 50% to 85% by using their idle capacity during the pandemic period. However, collection and stock risks have also in- creased (risks such as overheating, infestation, flooding, etc. in the warehouse). Another challenge for flour industrialists has been fluc- tuations in wheat prices. While Russia raised the taxes until June 2, it stated that it will announce weekly taxa- tion in the roadmap it will follow. For example, it has set taxation at 28.1%/tonne for June 2-8. Thus, since the tax- ation will change on a weekly basis, the long-run change in prices is another uncertainty. Our factories, which op- erate with a low profit share in our highly competitive sector are faced with these problems, and at the same time, they have to allocate a budget for innovative tech- nologies. Despite this, the flour industry has created an income of over $1 billion in return by exporting flour to 163 countries, and has become one of the sectors that provide the greatest support to our national income. I wish everyone a nice and fruitful harvest. I also wish you health and a festival-like season. "In every grain of wheat there lies hidden the soul of a star." (Arthur Machen) 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 PRODUCTION 732 762 774 790 CONSUPTION 168 184 189 185 STOCKS 260 278 289 298