Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

89 Country Profile MILLER / june 2021 belts. Researchers report that farmers may be forced to switch to less water-intensive crops like corn, pulses, or vegetables soon. Northwestern wheat growing areas have also reported sporadic incidence of yellow rust in the last few years, but there has been no known inci- dence of Ug99, wheat rust of global concern. Wheat is the staple food in the northwest and cen- tral India. It competes with rice in wheat non-grow- ing regions in the south and east India. Households, local restaurants, and eateries account for about 80 percent of the wheat domestically consumed in India. Some wheat is used for processed food products such as raised breads, biscuits (cookies), and other bakery items (about 12-15 percent). There is also a small market for high-quality wheat (4-5 MMT) for western-style pas- ta, and baking/confectionary foods. WHEAT MILLING SECTOR The organized milling sector includes some 1,300 medium-to-large flour mills with a milling capacity of about 25-28 MMT, per year. Market sources report that most mills are operating at 55-60 percent of their ca- pacity, and process about 15-16 MMT of wheat, annually. Much of the wheat produced is milled by the unorga- nized sector, that is, by small-scale family-owned mills. India processes approximately 200 million tonnes of var- ious grains and the industry employs roughly 400,000 per- sons. For wheat milling, traditional equipment (small stone mills called chakki) with limited capacity are used. In addi- tion, there are roughly 800 large stone mills that account for about 15 percent of flour production. Then you have ap- proximately 1500 modern roller flour mills with capacities in excess of say 100 tonnes a day catering to growing flour demand. These account for roughly 30 percent of flour pro- duction. These mills produce wheat flour (atta), finely milled white flour (maida) and a kind of semolina (sooji or rawa). According to USDA, India is heading for its fifth con- secutive bumper wheat harvest in the upcoming mar- keting year thanks to favorable weather conditions in the major wheat-growing areas. USDA forecasts mar- keting year (MY) 2020/2021 (April-March) wheat pro- duction at 107 million metric tonnes (MMT) from 31.6 mil- lion hectares. India will experience its second-highest harvest this season, following four consecutive record harvests. India’s wheat consumption in MY 2021/2022 is forecast at 97 MMT, higher than last year’s estimated consumption of 96.6 MMT. WHEAT STOCKS Government-held wheat stocks as of April 1, 2021, are estimated at 27.3 MMT. Based on the forecast of lower production and steady consumption and exports, USDA New Delhi post’s MY 2021/2022 ending wheat stock estimate is lowered to 26.3 MMT. India’s import duty of 40 percent precludes any major imports of wheat in MY 2020/2021. Imports of wheat and wheat products in MY 2021/2022 are forecast at 25,000 MT, mostly of western-style pastas and baking/ confectionery foods products for the high-end consum- er market. Assuming continued weak domestic prices, and the current price parity for Indian wheat with those of other origins, MY 2021/2022 wheat exports are forecast at 2.0 MMT, heading primarily to Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, along with wheat flour exports to traditional African and Middle Eastern markets. RICE Rice is India’s most important food crop, represent- ing 40 percent of food grain production. Rice is the major staple cereal for 70 percent of the population, with the balance consuming rice with wheat or other cereals. India grows more than 4,000 rice varieties. The vast majority (90 percent) of farms are small (less than 2 hectares), and farmers retain 45-50 percent of pro- duction for their consumption (locally milled) and seed use. Most of the coarse rice production (high yielding/ hybrid rice) is procured by the government, with small- er quantities purchased by private trade for exports. Locally preferred rice cultivars are procured by private trade and marketed in bulk and unbranded. A small, but growing, the share of rice is branded and marketed in consumer packaging. Long grain Basmati rice and other specialty/fragrant rice varieties are procured by