Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

90 Country Profile MILLER / june 2021 millers for export, as well as for domestic sales in bulk or branded/packages. Indian rice production has been above the trend line in the past four years due to increasing yields on fa- vorable monsoon rains. Rice acreage has plateaued at 44 million hectares; acreage faces competition from urbanization and high-value crops. Despite production increases, agricultural experts are concerned with the sustainability of rice production in several states, in- cluding vulnerability to climate change. Several states follow intensive, rice-based cropping systems (rice- wheat or rice-rice) which are leading to deteriorating soil health, declining water tables, and the emergence of new resistant diseases/pests. Assuming a normal 2021 monsoon (June-September 2021), USDA forecasts MY 2021/2022 rice production at 118 MMT. The rains lowered production costs by re- quiring less irrigation; leading to higher rice profit mar- gins compared to other crops. An increase in the gov- ernment’s MSP price for rice next year will encourage farmers to favor rice over other crops. India has become the world’s leading rice exporter following the government’s 2011 removal of its export ban on coarse rice. Rice exports in MY 2020/2021 are estimated at a record 15.5 MMT. USDA forecasts MY 2021/2022 rice exports lower at 14 MMT on expected higher MSP driven domestic rice prices and response from competing origins. Indian rice exports have been robust since the be- ginning of 2020 grounded on strong demand for non-Basmati rice to traditional markets. India has man- aged to maintain uninterrupted export supplies despite COVID-19 related supply disruptions. Government rice stocks as of April 1, 2021, are esti- mated at 49.9 MMT compared to 49.2 MMT during the same period last year. This volume now is nearly four times the government’s desired rice stocks volume of 13.58 MMT. And rice consumption in MY 2020/2021 is estimated at 103.1 MMT, up to eight percent from last year. COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION India’s coarse grain production is dependent on the performance of the monsoon as 85 percent of the acreage is unirrigated. Assuming a normal monsoon this summer, MY 2021/2022 coarse grain production is forecast at 47.6 MMT, lower than the MY 2020/2021 record harvest of 49.2 MMT, on trend yields. The MY 2021/2022 coarse grain production forecast includes 29 MMT of corn, 12 MMT of millet, 4.6 MMT of sorghum, and 1.95 MMT of barley. Wheat Productıon, Consumptıon and Exports ın Indıa (1000 Tonnes) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 103600 107860 107000 Consumption 95409 103085 104000 Exports 509 2000 2000 Source: USDA Corn Productıon, Consumptıon and Exports ın Indıa (1000 Tonnes) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 28766 30200 29000 Consumption 27200 28500 29400 Exports 1376 1800 1200 Source: USDA Rıce Productıon, Consumptıon and Exports ın Indıa (1000 Tonnes) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 118870 121000 118000 Consumption 105984 106500 108000 Exports 12486 15500 14000 Source: USDA Barley Productıon, Consumptıon and Exports ın Indıa (1000 Tonnes) 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 Production 1633 1722 1950 Consumption 1850 1900 2000 Exports 1 5 10 Source: USDA