Miller Magazine Issue: 138 June 2021

95 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / june 2021 tive impact on the export potential. Russia may enter the new season with huge reserves of wheat, which are es- timated at 10-12 MMT. The market does not exclude that the practice of export quotas will remain in the second half of the season, while the mechanism for calculating the duty will be improved. Sovecon told Reuters that it expects Russian wheat exports to decline from 37.7MMT in the current season to 36.6MMT in 2021/22. Something tells me, duty and quotations will stay with us during the new season and could be lightly changed by the govern- ment but not reversed. By the way, despite height plant- ing areas in Russia, weather conditions cut some yields potential and partly shifting to spring crops will not help in full charge. Ukrainian crops look good but rains do not always make grains. Better weather conditions in France have improved the state of wheat crops. In the new sea- son, it is predicted that the EU will seriously compete for the Black Sea grain in traditional markets. Wheat imports to China from June 2020 to March 2021 amounted to 8.76 MMT, which is 147% more than in the same period last year. The main suppliers of wheat are Australia, France, Canada, and the USA. In the 21/22 sea- son, China plans to import about 8 MMT of wheat. The main factors behind the growth of imports are the res- toration of the pig population, the replenishment of the state reserve, as well as a change in the formulation of feed - the state urged to reduce the share of corn and meal. Will they or not – depends on ASF outbreaks and storage capacity. VEGOILS MARKET Soybeans rise on news of potential crop cuts in China in favor of corn and US weather. Many areas of China's Hei- longjiang Province are seeing significant declines in soy- bean acreage, China Oilseeds reported. On average, the sown area has been decreased by 20-30%, and in some regions even by 40%. Farmers receive additional pay-