Miller Magazine Issue: 139 July 2021

104 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / july 2021 a historic drought, hitting three consecutive nights of sub-zero temperatures last week. Production expec- tations of pattern analysts at 82-87MMT, USDA attache -95MMT, WASDE still ignores weather disasters and showed 98MMT in the last report. As a result, the export of corn from Brazil in 2021 may approach 20-22MMT. Brazilian ports are slated to load corn on 39 vessels in July, up from 85 in July 2020, according to Maritime Agency Cargonave. Brazil may export 2.5MT of corn in July, up from 5MT in July 2020. Brazil will export corn in July, August and September, according to the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec), but corn exports are expected to decline significantly after that as much of the grain will remain in the domestic market. High prices could prompt Brazilian farmers to significant- ly increase their acreage for the 2021/22 safrinha corn crop, Soybean & Corn Advisor reported. According to Safras & Mercados, 7.8% of the Cen- tral South Region has already been harvested, up from 20.2% YoY and 17.9% on average over 5 years. 49.1% of winter corn of the Central-South region has already been sold, in Mato Grosu ~ 60% sold, in Goias ~ 50% The Argentine government expects corn production in 20/21 to hit a record 59MMT, private analysts estimate that harvest is nearly 50% complete. A number of local analysts are pessimistic and expect lower production fig- ures - around 48MMT. Exporters report that new sales are practically on hold. In addition, reports have emerged that the cost of shipping grain from an agricultural power plant in Argentina will rise due to the government's pro- posal for cargo ships to pay the duty to the state, rather than a company that deepens the Parana River. WHEAT Against the background of a decline in the cost of wheat as harvesting approaches and favorable weather conditions, tenders were again held by Egypt, Iran and South Korea, and a tender was announced in Turkey. The decline in prices in the Black Sea continues. Durum shortage expected in the market. In the summer months in China, due to low demand for flour products, the demand for flour decreases, Chi- na Oilseeds reports. Many factories stop processing, as well as the purchase of new raw materials due to sig- nificant residues of the old crop. All these factors put pressure on the price, but the main factor for future price growth is the fact that the quality of Chinese wheat this season is quite low, so the price of quality wheat will still be high. The average price for a new crop is around RMB 2,570 per tonne or 315 USD CIF China port. China was the second-largest destination for Australian wheat in June, just behind Indonesia, which exported 370kMT, or 13% of total 2.77MTT exports in June, according to Ad- vance Trading shipment data. The country's total exports to China in the current 2020-21 marketing year, covering the period from October 2020 to September 2021, were around 1.68 MMT, Platts reported. China has booked four