Miller Magazine Issue: 139 July 2021

18 MILLER / july 2021 NEWS Global food trade is poised for a resilient year ahead even as international food commodity prices are set to remain high amid supply and demand uncertainties, according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The report notes that trade flows continued to reach new highs during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, on a global level, trade in agricultural products - particularly less-perishable foods - performed more ro- bustly than the broader merchandise sectors. That has contributed to drive FAO's provisional forecast for the world food import bill in 2021 to $1.72 trillion, a 12 percent increase from its previous high of$1.53 trillion in 2020. However, rising prices raise concerns that higher out- lays may still mask deteriorating quantitative and qualita- tive dietary trends in vulnerable countries. Food Outlook, issued twice a year, offers a detailed assessment of market supply and demand trends for the world's major foodstuffs, including cereals, vegeta- ble oils, sugar, meat and dairy and fish. It also looks at trends in futures markets and shipping costs for food commodities. Among its findings, measured by the FAO Global Food Consumption Price Indices, is that the average world- wide consumer price of protein in May 2021 was 23 percent above its May 2020 level. Calories, in prices, meanwhile, were up 34 percent year-on-year and hit their highest level since February 2013. The difference reflects stronger price rises for wheat, coarse grains and vegetable oils compared to meats, dairy products and fish. World output of the major food commodities is expect- ed to increase in the year ahead, with the exception of sugar, which is forecast to decline for the third consec- utive year and fall short of global consumption, pointing to the need to run down inventories. ROBUST WHEAT SUPPLY The market outlook for oilseeds and their derived products appears tight, with resumed production growth foreseen insufficient to satisfy world demand. Global food trade is buoyant, as are prices