Miller Magazine Issue: 140 August 2021

86 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / august 2021 Total wheat production in Russia is down by 1 million MT, with the reduction divided evenly among the spring and winter wheat crops. Winter wheat estimated production for Russia is reduced 500,000 MT to 64 million with lower area based on updated data from Russia’s Federal State Statistical Service. While the winter wheat yield is estimated higher because of good growing conditions, it is not enough to overcome the smaller area caused by winterkill. In late winter and early spring, winter crops in some areas of the Central and Volga re- gions experienced a process called ‘ice crusting’ where the snow melted, followed by the moisture in and around the plant refreezing from colder tem- peratures. Russia spring wheat production is re- vised downwards to 21 million MT as the decrease in spring wheat yield more than offsets an increase in area. Yields are down because of heat and dry conditions in the central spring wheat production areas. The increase in spring wheat area may partly reflect the impact of spring crops being resown to replace damaged winter crops. Wheat production in Kazakhstan is estimated to be 13 million MT, a 1 million MT decrease from last month. From April 1 to July 7, Kazakhstan’s cumulative pre- cipitation was more than 40 percent lower than the long-run average. Dryness in Kazakhstan’s key spring wheat growing areas also reflect conditions in key spring wheat-growing regions of Russia, particularly the Ural region. Canada is still experiencing severe drought, ex- treme heat, and windy conditions in much of the Prai- rie provinces. Canada’s production is estimated lower by 0.5 million MT to 31.5 million MT because of a de- crease in yield. More than offsetting these reductions, production for the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Ukraine is projected higher by a collective 1.9 million MT. Both the EU and UK wheat production estimates are revised upwards by 700,000 MT each to 138.2 million MT and 14.8 million MT, respectively. Yields for the UK are expected higher with average to above[1]average rainfall and warmer temperatures. Wheat production in the UK is expected to grow 53 percent year-over-year. Similar favorable conditions in France have boosted expectations of production there. Elsewhere in the EU, production for Romania and Bulgaria are both raised, more than offsetting reduced output for Poland and the Czech Republic. Ukraine expects improvement in yields across all agroclimatic areas to bring their estimated yield to a new record of 4.18 metric tons per hectare (MT/ha). Outside the major exporting countries, Pakistan is expected to reach a record production of 27 million MT. Yield is expected to increase in Pakistan by 0.1 MT/ha to 2.94 which is short of the 2017/18 record. Wheat production in Brazil is estimated up 100,000 MT to 6.9 million due to both an increase in area and yield. Moldova’s production is estimated up 100,000 MT to a record 1.3 million, with yield also forecast at a record (3.71 MT/ha) as Moldova has benefited from the same favorable conditions as Ukraine. STEADY GLOBAL WHEAT CONSUMPTION Projected 2021/22 world wheat consumption is fractionally lower at 790.9 million on lower feed and residual use in Russia, the United States, and Kazakh- stan mostly being offset by higher food, seed, and industrial use in several countries. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) consumption is adjusted upwards by 1.7 million MT to 628.3 million MT, driven mainly by Pa- kistan (+800,000 MT to 26 million), Nigeria (+500,000 MT to 5.3 million), and Algeria (+250,000 MT to 11.3