Miller Magazine Issue: 140 August 2021

87 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / august 2021 million). FSI for the EU is adjusted 650,000 MT lower in 2019/20 as COVID-related lockdowns are estimat- ed to have reduced domestic use. Feed and residual use is lowered by 172,000 MT with increases for the EU (+500,000 MT) and Thai- land (+300,000 MT) more than offset by reductions for Russia (-500,000 MT), Kazakhstan (-300,000 MT), and the United States (-272,000 MT). BOOSTED GLOBAL WHEAT TRADE Global trade in 2021/22 is boosted by 1.5 million MT to 205.5 million on the trade year (July[1]June). Ex- ports for Australia and the EU are boosted by 1 million MT each to 22 million and 34 million, respectively. Both have larger supplies and are positioned to take a greater share of global trade based on reduced trade for key competitors. Australia is poised to gain more share among some quality-sensitive buyers based on smaller exports from Canada and the United States. Exports are also boosted for Ukraine (+500,000 MT) and the United Kingdom (+150,000 MT), driven by larger supplies. Pakistan’s exports are raised for both 2020/21 (up 200,000 MT to 500,000) and 2021/22 (up 300,000 MT to 600,000) based on estimated bor- der trade with Afghanistan. Conversely, exports are reduced for Canada (-500,000 to 23 million) and Kazakhstan (- 500,000 MT to 7.5 million) based on reduced production es- timates. Exports for the United States are also cut 500,000 MT to 24.5 million with dry conditions caus- ing tighter supplies of soft white winter wheat and high-protein spring wheat. The largest import revision for 2021/22 by far is Pa- kistan (+1.5 million MT to 2.5 million). Imports in that country are expected to surge with the Government’s recent decision to approve 3 million tons of imports during 2021/22 to boost strategic reserves. Nigeria’s imports are boosted 400,000 MT to 5.6 million MT to keep pace with a strong pace of ship- ments in 2020/21. Imports are reduced 400,000 MT for the United Kingdom with larger domestic produc- tion. Imports for the United States are raised 400,000 MT on the expectation that tight supplies of durum and other spring wheat will result in larger imports from Canada. ENDING STOCKS TIGHTENED Ending stocks are reduced 5.1 million MT to 291.7 million in 2021/22, with major exporting countries ac- counting for many of the largest changes. U.S. stocks are lowered 2.9 million MT to 18.1 million, the lowest stock level since 2013/14. EU ending stocks are pro- jected 900,000 MT smaller with stronger feed and export demand more than offsetting the increased size of its crop. Ending stocks for Kazakhstan and Russia are reduced to 600,000 and 500,000 MT, respectively, to account for smaller crops. Ukraine’s ending stocks are raised 150,000 MT to 1.7 million. Ending stocks for Argentina, Australia, and Canada are unchanged. Exporter ending stocks collectively are down 4.7 million MT from last month to 58.5 mil- lion MT. Exporter-ending stocks are now projected up only slightly from the previous year and remain rela- tively tight relative to the previous several years. The balance of stocks among major exporters has shift- ed in the last few years with Russia’s stocks grow- ing significantly as a result of its export duty regime. Russia’s stocks are projected larger than EU stocks and nearly catching up with U.S. stocks. Outside of the major exporting countries, there are a few other notable revisions to projected 2021/22 stock totals.