Miller Magazine Issue: 140 August 2021

88 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / august 2021 Turkey’s stocks are projected down by 788,000 MT to 3.3 million, motivated by a reduction to beginning stocks based on smaller 2020/21 imports. Morocco’s beginning and ending stocks in 2021/22 are similarly reduced by 400,000 MT based on revised 2020/21 trade. Iran’s projected ending stocks are boosted 300,000 MT, driven by import revisions. Pakistan’s projected ending stocks are raised 300,000 MT to 4.9 million based on stronger 2021/22 imports as the Government has stated the goal of increasing its stra- tegic reserves of wheat. Global ending stocks for 2020/21 are reduced by 3.3 million MT to 290.2 million, partly due to the aforementioned stock adjustment for Pakistan. Fur- thermore, Australia’s ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered 1 million MT to 4.4 million MT as reserves are drawn lower to meet its higher export total. CORN Corn production in 2021 is set to reach a new record, up 3.7 percent y/y, largely on increased outputs in China, the EU, Ukraine, and especial- ly the US. Utilization in 2021/22 could grow by around 2 percent, supported by stronger demand for both industrial and animal feed applications. Trade is forecast to expand marginally in 2021/22 (July/June), with higher import demand from China still a leading driver, along with likely increase in purchases by the EU, Mexico, and Turkey. Stocks are forecast to contract for the fourth consecutive season, down 2.7 percent y/y, with the bulk of the drawdown again occurring in China and more than offsetting likely increases in the EU, South Africa and the US. RICE Rice production in 2021 to rise by 1.0 percent, as gains in Asia and, to a lesser extent, in West Africa and Australia overshadow cuts or stagnations else- where. Utilization in 2021/22 to expand by 1.4 percent primarily on rising food use, although another expan- sion in feed uptake is also expected. Trade in 2021 (January-December) still seen expanding, notwith- standing somewhat less buoyant import expectations for various African buyers. In 2022, growth in global exchanges tentatively seen stalling. Stocks (2021/22 carry-outs) seen marginally above their opening lev- els, as continued drawdowns in China are largely off- set by expected accumulations elsewhere.