Miller Magazine Issue: 141 September 2021

105 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / september 2021 rently amounts to 3 MT / ha. Local analysts have once again revised production and estimate it at 75-77MMT, and expect that in the September WASDE report the forecast of 72.5MMT will be increased. Canada has updated its forecast for wheat production. It was expected to be 22.6 MMT versus 24 MMT USDA and 35.18 MMT last year, but even taking into account the drought, StatCanada is forecasting 22.95 MMT. In any case, the market has already taken this into account in the price. Georgia, which import potential reaches 0.5 MMT per year, is looking for wheat suppliers alternative to Russia, as prices are too high. The duty, which according to market estimates at the end of September will reach $ 55 per ton minimum, does not allow efficient purchase of grain from Russian producers. Wheat harvest in Kazakhstan may be 30% lower than last year. Harvesting began and farms were faced with quality problem. The Union of Field Growers predicts about 10MMT of durum and soft wheat, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts a decrease in yield by 20% and yield by 15MMT. Iran, Egypt and a number of state operators of other importing countries have purchased wheat, returning the current price tag for October delivery to FOB ~ $ 300. VEGOILS MARKET The United States curtailed oil production because of the hurricane. OPEC + will consider the possibility of increasing production today. Brazilian soybean offers for October ship- ment to CNF China are very expensive. Traders face a shortage of supply from farmers. Pre-hurricane CNF bids were at + 370 / 380X, 35 cents higher than PNW bids. In addition, America has nearly exhausted its export potential. The price of soybeans in China remains at the same level. In the North-East there were some small rains, however, they will not have a large positive effect on crops, as due to the long heat, the forecasts for yields are very low. Due to the abun- dance of rains and waterlogged soil in the northeast of the PRC, it is predicted that harvesting will begin with a delay of 1-2 weeks. Rumor has it that the State Reserve plans to start selling soybeans harvested in 2017 and 2019. If this is the case, then the additional volumes will have an impact on the current prices in the domestic market. In the main areas of production and storage of soybeans, soybean stocks are rapidly declining, soybeans have been sold either to the State Reserve or to pro- cessors. In ports in the south of the country, soybeans of the last year are also practically sold out. At the end of August, the school year begins, which will lead to an increase in demand for soybean processed products, however, there is no particular activity on the part of proces- sors, most likely this is due to the fact that many have made stocks a few months ago. China continues to buy at least 2 vessels of American soybeans almost every day. The price of soybean oil started to rise this week. The main reason was the support from the exchange prices. In the North- east, many factories have suspended processing due to a busy warehouse with soybean meal or lack of soybeans, while in southern China many factories have reopened. Stocks of soy- bean oil, at the main factories, amount to 935kMT, which is 8.5k less than a week earlier. Tensions between the PRC and Canada, as well as problems with the supply of rapeseed around the world, have led to the fact that the percentage of operating rapeseed processing plants is at a low level. Only 5 large factories are operating, and then, many of them are not working at full capacity. Ending stocks of rapeseed oil are also quite large, China Oilseeds reports. The main reason for the rise in prices is the influence of general mar- ket trends, namely the rise in prices for soybean and palm oil. Due to low rapeseed imports to China, there will be a short- age of raw materials in the second half of the year, which will lead to a reduction in processing volumes. At the moment, sup- ply exceeds demand; large oil reserves will be difficult to sell in the short and even medium term. The situation with sunflower oil is similar to the situation with soybean oil. Due to the lower price, sunflower oil is preferred by many buyers. Demand on the eve of the holidays starts to rise a little. Russia and Ukraine have started harvesting sunflower seeds. So far, due to the delay in the start of the harvesting campaign, it is difficult to talk about a potential average quality, but the prospects for the Ukrainian harvest remain quite optimistic, most market participants are inclined to a figure of more than 16MMT, while, according to our estimates, the harvest in Russia may not exceed 14.9MMT, which is low oil content will support oil prices. At the same time, Romania and Turkey also expect record volumes of sunflower - according to our estimates - 3.3MMT and 1.7MMT, respectively. Oilseed production in the EU is also rated at a high level. So let’s go ahead like we are durum or rapeseeds – the most expensive grains on the global market this season.