Miller Magazine Issue: 141 September 2021

72 INTERVIEW MILLER / september 2021 "He did it, I'll do it too". You can see this in every sector with relatively easy investment and government incentives in Turkey. Unfortunately, there is a similar situation in the pasta industry and licensed warehousing. MANY FLOUR FACTORIES WILL BE CLOSED We think that the amount of milled wheat in our country will decrease in the coming years. This decrease will be due to the decrease in both domestic consumption and ex- ports. Changes in eating habits cause a decrease in bread consumption per capita. This decrease is not unique to us. Wheat consumption per capita is decreasing in the West- ern world every year. According to OECD figures, food wheat consumption per capita in the European Union was 109kg between 2005-14, while it was 211kg in our country in the same period. With the increase in national income per capita in our country, our per capita wheat consump- tion will approach the EU averages. Although the increase in the population of the country will compensate for the decrease in general wheat consumption, it is understood that the domestic market will shrink. Similarly, there are problems in export markets. Many countries are choosing to invest in their own milling indus- try and to reduce their flour imports. Therefore, both the decrease in wheat consumption per capita and the de- crease in our flour exports in the coming years will further increase the internal capacity pressure. As a result, many flour mills will have to cease operations. We see that food nationalism is on the rise with the pandemic. Grain-exporting countries imposed prohibi- tions, restrictions and additional taxes. Russia, where Turkey imports more than 60 percent of its wheat im- ports, comes first. During the pandemic, we realized that even if you have money, wheat cannot be bought. Turkey need to increase grain production. So what can be done at this point? What kind of cooperation can be made between the industrialist who processes the wheat and the farmer who produces it? Can agricultural production contracts be the solution at this point? Turkey has been experiencing serious problems in wheat production in recent years. We have been importing for the last three years in order to meet our own domes- tic consumption in addition to our imports for the export of finished goods. However, in 2005, we had a surplus of 4 million tons of wheat in TMO stocks. Turkey was both self-sufficient and our industrialists could purchase the wheat required for flour export from TMO within the scope of inward processing regime. We were witnessing that TMO exported its surplus wheat through international ten- ders in those years. Unfortunately, we are a long way from that point right now. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD PROMOTE WHEAT PRODUCTION If we point to the droughts as the only reason we got to this point, it would be wrong. Of course, the drought we have experienced this year has dealt a serious blow to our wheat and barley production. However, even if there was no drought, we would probably still have a deficit of 1-2 million tons. There are a number of things that need to be done for Turkey to become a country with a surplus in wheat again. The foremost of these is to ensure that wheat farming is a profitable business. In the short term, this can be achieved by keeping TMO inter- vention prices high, increasing direct subsidies, or sub- sidizing production inputs significantly. In this context, I think the 36% increase in the purchase price of wheat announced by our government this year is correct. Al- though the depreciation of the Turkish lira has eroded this significant price increase, I think the entire industry should support the change in our state's approach to the issue. The second issue that I see as important is irrigation. There is no agriculture without water. According to official figures, we are still within 54% of the Southeastern Ana- tolia Project (GAP) irrigation target. Anatolia will become even drier with the effect of global warming, so irrigation will be of vital importance. Our state should give priority to large irrigation projects that will make the Anatolian steppe green. Thirdly, we need to reduce the grain demand of the feed industry. The ratio of ready-made feed in animal feed should decrease, the share of pastures should increase. This will ensure that some of the wheat used by the feed industry will remain in the food industry.