Miller Magazine Issue: 141 September 2021

75 INTERVIEW MILLER / september 2021 we will experience a serious loss in our Iraqi exports. The trend we observe in overseas export markets is that these countries are establishing their own mills. For ex- ample, 10 years ago, Indonesia was a market where we exported close to 500 thousand tons. Unfortunately, this figure has now fallen to an insignificant level of 30 thou- sand tons per year. The reason for this decrease was nei- ther the increase in import duties nor the anti-dumping or safeguard measures. Indonesia has increased the number of mills and the market has become an efficient market. This eliminated the need for flour imports. The same development took place in the Philippines. Our exports decreased from 170 thousand tons to 20 thousand tons. New flour factories are being established very quickly in Africa, one of our important markets. African governments, which have adopted the industrialization model with import substitution, unlike the Far East, either prohibit flour imports or impose a preventive import tax as soon as their wheat crushing capacity reaches the point where they can feed the country. Therefore, it is inevitable that we will experience a contraction in our overseas ex- port markets. I am not one of those who think that Russia has a strate- gy to export flour instead of wheat, or that it is wise if there is one. Because, as I explained above, when we exam- ine the 13.5 million-ton world flour trade in detail, we see that the market is not as big as it is thought for a coun- try that wishes to become a global flour exporter. I don't think that a country like Russia that exports 40 million tons of wheat will target a market of 2.7 million tons, which is shrinking every day, and especially that it will impose a raw material export tax for this. If Russia is targeting wheat importing countries rather than flour importing countries and it is thought that those countries will import flour in- stead of wheat, this would not be a logical approach again. Because flour import can never be an alternative to im- porting wheat and crushing it in your own country in the context of food safety. The shelf life of flour is so short that it cannot be compared with wheat. Storage of flour is much more difficult than wheat. Wheat supply can be done in high tonnages and it is a market ten times deeper than global flour export. In quality problems, quality correction can be achieved by mixing with other wheats. Therefore, no country wants to close its mills and make the country dependent on flour imports. Flour imports can only make up for the shortage of local production. THE NEW TREND IS TO IMPORT WHEAT AND CRUSH IT AT THE DESTINATION I think that the world flour trade will decrease in the coming period. Now the new trend is to import wheat and crush it at the destination. For the reasons I explained above, when the country that used to be a flour import- er established its own mills and no longer allowed wheat flour import, it will not mean anything if you are producing in Turkey, Russia or Ukraine. Of course, wheat flour trade in the world will never be zero. A food crisis, a political or economic crisis or drought in some part of the world will necessitate flour import. When a need arises, the answer to the question “Where to buy flour?” should continue to be Turkey as it is now. For this, Turkey should re-establish the Flour Promotion Group, which was closed with an erroneous decision in 2017. And also our flour industrialists should focus on quality and efficient production. Companies outside the sector, which has become very widespread these days, should not be allowed to collect and export the flours of unknown origin. We must keep our container logistics strong. And perhaps most importantly, we should return to the years when we had a surplus in wheat, as in the 2000s. In this way, we both realize a more value-added flour export and we do not face the export restrictions of wheat exporting countries. Mr. Kaşıkçı, is there anything else you would like to share with our readers? Thank you for giving this opportunity to me.